L.A. fires: Will Trump immigration crackdown slow rebuilding?
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The breeze was tinged with smoke from the fires that burned through Pacific Palisades as dozens of workers finished up the brick facade of a sprawling home in the tony Brentwood Park neighborhood.
The talk was in Spanish, an unremarkable fact given the language has been the lingua franca on most construction sites in Southern California for decades.
But that fact could be at the center of a leviathan clash of interests: the need to rebuild thousands of homes that were incinerated on a scale the city had never seen before, and the promises of an incoming president to deport a good percentage of the workers who would be needed to get that colossal undertaking done.
“Everyone is scared,” said Melvin Merino, 36, a painter at the home. Workers “are reluctant to talk about their immigration status out of fear it may be shared with immigration officials.”
Even in a city that is supportive of the immigrant population, his fears could make him and others cautious to take jobs in high profile areas such as the fire zone.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to execute the largest mass deportation program of unauthorized immigrants in U.S. history and “seal” the borders from immigrants. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, promises to bring back worksite enforcement.
Immigrants rights groups are bracing for widespread roundups and expulsions, holding legal workshops up and down the state in a bid to aid residents who might be stopped by federal authorities.
The threat is rattling the construction industry, in which there is already a labor shortage. The wildfires that leveled an estimated 12,000 structures in Pacific Palisades and Altadena will only intensify demand. As homeowners turn to contractors for the slow process of rebuilding, an immigration policy that deports undocumented workers or forces them underground may hinder the recovery.
“It’s really a perfect storm,” said Jennie Murray, president of the National Immigration Forum, a group that advocates for bipartisan immigration policies.
An estimated 41% of construction workers in California are immigrants, according to the National Assn. of Home Builders. But experts say that number is far higher in residential construction — much of which is nonunionized and not as heavily regulated as large capital projects. The pay is lower and many don’t have the legal status to be in the United States.
Trump officials have said the administration will prioritize criminals and those posing a threat to public safety, but their plans has yet to take clear shape. Many employers fear the administration will cast a wider net and that could ravage industries such as hospitality, manufacturing, construction and agricultural, all heavily dependent on immigrant labor.
This month, immigration enforcement actions by Customs and Border Patrol in Bakersfield spread anxiety among agricultural workers after dozens of people were detained in a multiday operation. Accounts of Border Patrol stopping people spread on social media.
Growers reported a drop in workers showing up to their jobs, and advocacy groups saw a surge of frightened families show up to legal workshops on how to protect themselves against deportation.
In Southern California, a similar situation could hurt not only the rebuilding efforts but also preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
“There simply aren’t enough roofers and drywallers and all these other skilled trades in this country,” said Nik Theodore, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago who studies disaster recovery in the Department of Urban Planning and Policy. “Then you put the backdrop of the campaign promises of the incoming Trump administration around immigration enforcement and deportations, we’re facing a quite serious situation.”
The U.S. construction industry has about 276,000 jobs that are unfilled. To address the tight labor market, the National Assn. of Home Builders has advocated for a guest worker program.
Figures vary but some estimates put the percentage of unauthorized workers in construction in the U.S. between 13% and 23%. Last year, California Lutheran University’s Center for Economics and Social Issues analyzed data from 2019 and found the figure was 28.7% in California and that those workers added $23 billion of value to the industry that year.
“There’s definitely labor shortages around the corner,” said Frank Hawk, executive secretary-treasurer of the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, which represents 90,000 union members in 12 Western states. Even before the wildfires, there were concerns about the region’s ability to deliver skilled workers for the Olympics, he said.
And he said that workers without legal status will be concerned about traveling far, where they might be vulnerable to immigration officials.
Others may go underground or just leave the country altogether. Builders worry that will further constrain the market, putting pressure on costs.
The Cal Lutheran study found that the median hourly wage of undocumented workers in California in all sectors was $13 — half the $26 that U.S.-born workers made. Authorized immigrants earned $19 an hour.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has outlined plans to boost assistance to millions of citizens who may face deportation, suggested this week that Los Angeles should use immigrant Mexican workers.
“When reconstruction process begins, of course it will require a lot of labor, and there’s no better construction workers than Mexicans,” she said during a news conference where she pushed back on right-wing portrayals of migrants as criminals.
One of the nation’s worst disasters, the Southern California fires have been compared to Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast, where a workforce of Latino immigrants poured in to rebuild the region. In Paradise, Calif., where fires swept through the heavily wooded Northern California town and killed 85 people six years ago, the rebuilding process still draws in about 5,000 workers daily — many Latino immigrants — to erect walls, lay foundations and put in piping.
A lot of immigrants will flock to disaster zones in hopes of finding jobs, said Pablo Alvarado, co-executive director of the National Day Laborers Organizing Network.
After Katrina, he said, “every five minutes employers were stopping at a day laborer corner and actually they were paying good.”
“But that’s where the injustices come,” he said. Unauthorized immigrants are especially vulnerable to unsafe conditions and other abuses. Many post-Katrina workers complained about not getting paid what they earned.
Merino, the painter, fears contractors won’t hire unauthorized immigrants to avoid dealing with federal authorities. Others think those with established contract work will probably keep getting hired, while newer immigrants may have trouble getting jobs.
If mass deportations were carried out, research shows the fallout could ripple through the entire building industry, leading to net job losses among U.S.-born construction workers.
“If you don’t have people framing the house, installing the drywall, you cannot have the American electricians and plumbers come in and do their work,” said Dayin Zhang, an assistant professor in real estate and urban economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Zhang co-wrote a recent study examining a U.S. immigration enforcement program that began in 2008 and resulted in the deportation of more than 300,000 people. The study found a large and persistent reduction in the construction workforce and residential homebuilding in counties after deportations occurred. Home prices also increased as the effects of a reduced housing supply dominated those of lesser demand from deported immigrants.
Widespread deportations are likely to have larger effects in Los Angeles because of the higher numbers of construction workers living in the area illegally, Zhang said.
“If anything, I would think that would be a much bigger distortion to the labor supply in the construction sector in the L.A. area,” he said.
In Malibu, Alberto Garcia, 38, an immigrant from Honduras, was volunteering Friday at the Malibu Community Labor Exchange.
“We’re very worried about deportations,” he said. Garcia hopes to secure a construction job in Malibu but fears any hiccup in his asylum case could hurt him.
“I was really trying to do everything by the book,” he said, flustered. “All we can do is put our trust in God.”
Another volunteer, Alejandro Perez, 45, who migrated from Mexico, applied for asylum but is uncertain about his status. He and other workers say they have no other option but to step out of their house each morning and find work.
“The need for food, bills and rent money obligate you to look for work,” he said. He specializes in roofing, drywall installation and painting, but worries contractors may not hire him because of his status.
Others are likely to stay home, said Oscar Malodrago, director of the Malibu Community Labor Exchange.
Hector Reyes owns a construction business that caters to clients on the Westside, including Pacific Palisades, Bel-Air and Westwood. He is typical of many immigrants that work in the trade.
Reyes, like many in the business, gained skills on the job, eventually learned English, obtained a green card and became licensed. He built a decades long career in the trade that allowed him to raise a family, three children and a middle-class life.
Reyes has a small crew including his sons, but the threats feel familiar, reminiscent of the 1980s when immigration raids were common on worksites. “People were hiding in boxes, in attics.”
“I know people that don’t live here legally, but they are very decent people, they work their butts off,” he said.
Theodore said that, deportations or not, the city will depend on them.
“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say Los Angeles is gonna be rebulit by immigrant workers,” he said.
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