What will Mexico do if Trump tries to mass deport non-Mexicans across the border?
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- “Donald Trump is going to want to send people who aren’t Mexicans back to Mexico,” says one expert.
- Mexico is under no legal obligation to accept noncitizens, but Trump has threatened tariffs that could cripple its economy.
- Under earlier Trump programs, many asylum seekers sent to Mexico fell victim to crime and became a burden for towns housing them.
MEXICO CITY — Mexican authorities have repeatedly vowed to welcome back their citizens should the incoming Trump administration proceed with threats of large-scale deportations.
“It’s our obligation,” said President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has outlined plans to boost assistance for millions of Mexican citizens facing potential deportation from the United States — and increase aid for those forced back to Mexico.
But less clear, and more problematic, is how Mexico’s leaders will respond if, as expected, President-elect Donald Trump pressures them to accept deportees from other countries as well — either asylum seekers immediately sent back from the border or migrants living in the United States.
“This will be one of the first pressures facing Mexico,” said Eunice Rendón, a columnist and expert in migrant issues. “Donald Trump is going to want to send people who aren’t Mexicans back to Mexico, especially those from countries like Venezuela, with which the United States doesn’t have diplomatic relations.”
Mexico is under no legal obligation to take back noncitizens, even if many traveled through Mexico to reach U.S. territory. But in the past it has relented under the threat of tariffs that could cripple its economy.
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Trump again is vowing massive tariffs unless Mexico — which sends more than 80% of its exports north of the border — capitulates to his demands. That leaves Mexico with little leverage to push back, experts say.
In December, Sheinbaum said her government preferred Washington send non-Mexicans directly back to their homelands, leaving Mexico out of it. But she recently signaled that Mexico may work with the U.S. on accepting some third-country nationals.
Trump’s next administration is reported to be considering reviving in some fashion two of its controversial programs — known as Remain in Mexico and Title 42 — that sent back into Mexico tens of thousands of non-Mexican asylum seekers detained at the Southwest border. Under Remain in Mexico, they were turned back to await U.S. court appearances. Under Title 42, a public health measure invoked during the COVID-19 pandemic, migrants were immediately returned to Mexico without court dates.
Bracing for Trump and his threatened migrant roundups, Mexico aims to roll out a ‘panic app’ for Mexican nationals facing deportation from the United States.
Many of the asylum seekers fell victim to crime and became a burden for Mexican cities and towns housing them. The Biden administration ended both programs.
During Trump’s first administration, Mexico agreed to accept non-Mexican deportees, limited mostly to Spanish speakers from Central and South America and Cuba, as well as Haitians.
Sheinbaum said this month that Mexican officials could “collaborate, through different mechanisms,” with their U.S. counterparts. She and her representatives have not clarified what terms Mexico would seek. But analysts say they will undoubtedly push for caps on the numbers and nationalities of deportees.
Mexico’s president walks a fine line between pleasing her constituents and placating Trump.
“I can see Mexico agreeing to accept some third-country nationals apprehended at the border, and taking those back,” said Adam Isacson, an analyst with the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group. “That has already been happening.”
After President Biden ended Title 42, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 expelled migrants per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela — countries that, for political and other reasons, pose challenges for direct deportations from the United States. That agreement remains in place.
“The really hard thing for Mexico would be if the Trump administration tries to force Mexico to receive Venezuelans and others who are living in the U.S. interior and face deportation,” Isacson said. “That would be difficult. Mexico is in a really tough spot.”
Mexico’s president pokes fun at Trump’s suggestion to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Once the president-elect takes office Monday, experts anticipate a flurry of executive orders regarding the Southwest border and deportations — cornerstones of Trump’s campaign pitch.
Republican members of Congress are already attempting to codify Remain in Mexico into U.S. law. Critics labeled the policy inhumane to those fleeing persecution, but proponents said it was an effective deterrent to bogus asylum claims. And Trump advisors, many of whom have pushed Title 42 for years, have appeared keen to reinstate that measure.
Whatever happens on Inauguration Day, thousands of U.S.-bound migrants in Mexico are watching closely.
They are caught between beefed-up Mexican enforcement — authorities there reported a record of more than 1 million detentions of immigrants last year, sending many back to southern Mexico — and a Biden administration policy that in June raised the legal standard for asylum claims and blocked access for those crossing the border illegally.
Mexico’s president said immigrants shouldn’t be treated as ‘criminals,’ but is planning for an influx of returnees if Trump implements mass deportations.
Few migrants appear to view staying in Mexico as a viable option.
“It’s urgent for us to get to the United States — everyone says it’s going to be more difficult once Trump arrives,” said Daisy Fernández, 24, of Venezuela, one of several hundred migrants camped outside a bus station in Mexico City. “We have a lot of friends and family now in the United States who tell us that, once you cross the border, you can easily find a job. Your life immediately changes for the better.”
Told that Trump is considering deporting Venezuelans and other non-Mexicans back to Mexico, Fernández was adamant.
“In no way do we want to be in Mexico — that doesn’t interest us,” said Fernández, who, like other migrants, spoke of abuse by Mexican immigrant agents, police and criminals while traversing the nation.
“There’s a lot of problems in Mexico, and no work. We want to reach the United States, whether Trump likes it or not,” she said. “If they deport us back to Mexico, we’ll keep trying to cross into the United States.”
She and her partner said they arrived in Mexico City last week after a two-month overland trek. They planned to head north before Inauguration Day.
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Both applied for appointments with U.S. authorities via CPB One, a Biden administration app program that has facilitated U.S. entry for almost 1 million asylum seekers waiting in Mexico. But it can take more than six months to get an appointment.
“We put in the application, but we don’t have an appointment,” Fernández said. “Anyway, I don’t think it makes much difference because we’ve heard that they are going to cancel CBP One the same day that Trump becomes president.”
Osmar Villa, 31, who was a restaurant worker in Cuba, also planned to leave the camp and try to enter the United States before Trump takes office.
“I will try as many times possible to cross into the United States and make a life there,” Villa said. “To remain in Mexico is not an option for me.”
Special correspondent Cecilia Sánchez Vidal contributed to this report.
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