NFL conference championship picks: Is a Bills-Commanders Super Bowl really possible?

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week in the NFC and AFC championship games. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Farmer had a regular-season winning percentage of .695 and, using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, .533 against the spread. Record for the divisional round of the playoffs was 2-2 (.500); overall playoffs 6-4 (.600). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread would have been 1-3 (.250); overall playoffs 4-6 (.400) . Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.

The Eagles’ Saquon Barkley (26) runs away from the Commanders’ Daron Payne during their game in Philadelphia. The NFC East rivals each won their home game this season.

(Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Sunday, noon. TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Fox Deportes

Line: Eagles by 6½. Over/Under: 47½.

How the Commanders can win: Let rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels do his thing. He’s not rattled by big moments. Defensively, it’s a pick-your-poison matchup for Washington. The Commanders need to find a way to slow either running back Saquon Barkley or receiver A.J. Brown. After Barkley ran for more than 100 yards against them in the opening quarter in Week 16, the Commanders clamped down on him the rest of the way. Brown always has been a problem for them. Washington doesn’t have great run defense, as Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs demonstrated in the divisional round. The Commanders tend to get in their own way with penalties and turnovers, so if they can limit those… A key player to watch on defense is corner Marshon Lattimore, twice flagged for pass interference while covering Brown last month.

How the Eagles can win: They need to run the ball. That’s their formula. Barkley tends to hammer a defense early and typically breaks through at some point. Defensively, the Eagles have limited explosive plays, done enough to stop the run and tend to force turnovers, something they didn’t do as well earlier in the season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts can’t turn over the ball, and he’s been pretty good about that and careful about avoiding risky throws. His left leg is hurting — how much, we don’t yet know — and that could be an issue if it makes him less mobile. He’s tough, though. On defense, tackle Jalen Carter is a wrecking ball. He draws so many double teams that it frees teammates with one-on-ones. Still, the key is defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He’s made everybody better.

Prediction: The Eagles likely would have swept both games with the Commanders but for Hurts’ concussion in their last meeting. Daniels is so poised and so hot, he’s going to present big problems. These division opponents know each other well, and the injury to Hurts could wind up making the Eagles slightly more one-dimensional. An upset could be in the works. Commanders 30, Eagles 28

The Bills’ Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Chiefs during Buffalo’s 30-21 home win in November.

(Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)

Sunday, 3:30. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), Paramount+

Line: Chiefs by 1½. Over/Under: 47½.

How the Bills can win: Buffalo has beaten Kansas City routinely in the regular season but that hasn’t carried over to the playoffs. Yet, these Bills are looser than in years past, maybe because relatively few people expected them to get this far. They are a power running team and have continued to prove that in this postseason, establishing a strong ground game against the top two run defenses. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and while he doesn’t have a clear No. 1 receiver, that’s actually a strength. As the Bills like to say, “Everybody eats.” They don’t turn over the ball. Defensively, they need to get Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the ground. He has hurt Buffalo in the past with off-schedule plays, keeping plays alive with his legs. The Bills have to make the tackles.

How the Chiefs can win: The Chiefs still are searching for a way to limit Allen. The games they’ve beaten him, they’ve basically outscored him. Kansas City’s defense has struggled to stop quarterback runs. Limiting the possessions is key. When these teams met in the playoffs last season, Buffalo had only eight possessions and of the first five, four went 70 yards or longer. The Bills have some vulnerabilities with their secondary, but the Chiefs need to get their receiving game going. Xavier Worthy was the only Chiefs wide receiver who caught a pass last week. We could see another game in which the tight ends are targeted the most. So get ready, Travis Kelce.

Prediction: This feels like a turn-the-corner year for Buffalo, especially with how calm and confident this team is. It’s always risky to bet against Mahomes, particularly with so much on the line, but Buffalo can control the tempo with an extremely balanced attack and keep him on the sideline. Bills 27, Chiefs 24