Racing! Will the downhill turf races return?

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we start the second week of Del Mar racing.

Last week at the California Horse Racing Board, Santa Anita presented its stakes schedule and on it were three races down the hillside turf course.

There’s the Grade 1 Eddie D. Stakes on Sept. 27, the Unzip Me Stakes on Sept. 28 and the Grade 3 Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes on Nov. 2. And, of course, who knows how many non-stakes will be scheduled.

The downhill course was shut down to sprints after the death of Arms Runner on the dirt crossover on March 31. It has been used for longer races such as the 1 3/4-mle San Juan Capistrano.

I thought the best way to capture the discussion is an edited transcript of the what was said with comments from me where appropriate.

The conversation started when Vice-Chair (and likely heir to chairman Chuck Winner when he leaves the board soon) Madeline Auerbach questioned Eric Sindler of The Stronach Group about the existence of 6 ½ downhill turf races on the stakes schedule.

Sindler: That’s still being decided.

Auerbach: But you’re presenting it like you are doing it, so are you or aren’t you?

(TSG chief operating officer) Tim Ritvo: As of this time we’re scheduling it as is. Because we are looking at the exploration of coming back down the turf course on selective races. So, right now we’re putting it in the schedule.

(Cherwa note: This leads to a discussion of the safety of the five-furlong grass course and horses spinning out of the turn. Board member Alex Solis, a former jockey, said jockeys are hoping a solution can be found and that the inside rail could be a problem.)

Ritvo: We’re willing to work with the jocks if 5/8ths grass races should be run with a temporary rail at all. And if we decide to not use the 6 ½ we’ll alleviate that by banking that turn. The reason it’s not banked now is because coming off the 6 ½ you needed a flat crossover.

Winner: There is a lot of concern about the 6 ½-furlong turf course. Should it be determined by [Santa Anita] without approval of the [CHRB] because you said you would be making a decision whether or not to use the downhill 6 ½ furlong course?

Ritvo: Our discussions are always open with the board, jockeys, the trainers. It wouldn’t be a single entity, ourselves, saying ‘Hey we’re going to do this again.’ We understand the statistical probabilities of coming down that. We’re also looking at longer range plans and maybe, just talking about flipping and maybe have the grass course on the outside then it would be in continuous use and putting a dirt course on the inside.

Winner: That’s long term. That’s not going to happen by this meet, right?

Ritvo: Correct.

Solis: I’ve raced at Santa Anita since 1985 and I don’t remember having so many issues with the 6 ½. I always felt safe on it and it worked out good for us.

Winner: I would suggest before we approve this license that before any decision is made with respect to the 6 ½ or 5 that at least the executive director [Rick Baedeker] be informed and it would require approval.

Ritvo: We would be fine that.

(Cherwa note: The board then asked if there were statistics comparing the downhill course and the flat turf course.)

Ritvo: On the 10-year statistics that we’ve run, it is a touch higher than it is on traditional grass. (Cherwa note: On flat turf over 10 years—15,593 races, 36 fatalities, 2.30 deaths per 1,000. On downhill course—10,809, 31, 2.87. Death rate is 24.8% higher on downhill course). It’s small, there are years that it’s actually less. (Cherwa note: 2011—1.11 deaths per 1,000 on downhill course, 2.20 on flat course; 2012—1.89 to 2.20; 2016—0.99 to 2.87). And there were a couple of years that had spikes.

Winner: But this last year there were spikes coming down the hill, especially when they hit the dirt.

Ritvo: Overall the spikes actually happen on the crossover over 10 years.

Back to me: It’s a tough call. If a horse has a catastrophic on the downhill course, will it be immediately deemed as unsafe? And, does it matter where the injury occurs? Should an accident on the downhill part be treated different than on the crossover than in deep stretch?

All good questions.

Now, your turn. Yes, another poll.

--Should sprint racing return to the downhill turf course? (vote here)

My guess, with no inside knowledge, is the 6 ½ races will return. As Solis pointed out in a round-about way, how did the course suddenly become unsafe. It also seems as if the horsemen like it.

But, these aren’t regular times. Every decision has consequences—good or bad.

Your thoughts on Lasix issue

On Wednesday, we took the questions posed to 140 industry people in New York about the use of Lasix in that state. The response was underwhelming, so we thought we would poll our readers. So, hopefully we’re not on poll overload. We’ll give you the results in a few days.

The questions:

--Should non-Lasix races be written in California? (vote here)

--Should Lasix be banned for 2-year-olds? (vote here)

--Should there be a dosage reduction requirement on race day? (vote here)

Del Mar review

Wednesday’s feature was the Grade 3 $100,000 Cougar II Handicap, a marathon 1 ½-mile race for horses 3 and older. The winner was the favorite, Campaign, who got a hard ride from Rafael Bejarano to finally win by 1 ¼ lengths. He was in last in the five-horse for much of the start but eventually made a move and slowly but surely moved up to the leaders and won.

He paid $3.40, $2.40 and $2.10. Itsinthepost was second and For the Top finished third.

Here’s what the connections had to say about the race:

John Sadler (winning trainer): “This horse is such a stayer there’s a very strong chance he’ll go in the Pacific Classic. Rafael [Bejarano] said he was kind of lethargic on kind of a hot and sticky day. But even though he runs from way back he can close even into a slow pace. We thought he would get up in the last part and he did.”

Rafael Bejarano (winning jockey): “I had to get busy with him [Wednesday] at the six [furlong marker)] The fractions were so slow and I knew I had to move up. And I knew that No. 2 (Itsinthepost) is a good horse and I didn’t want him to get too far away. But this horse always does it. He did it again today.”

Del Mar preview

Thursday’s card isn’t as good as Wednesday with no stakes races. There are seven races starting at 2 p.m., four of them are claimers and four of them involve maidens. And, there is the feature, an allowance/optional claimer for Cal-bred fillies and mares going a mile on the turf.

The favorite, at 3-1, is Opus Won, a play on one of the most respected (and out of my price range) wines. She’s one-for-six lifetime having just broken her maiden two back and then finished second in an allowance in her last start. Richard Baltas is the trainer and Flavien Prat will ride.

The second favorite, at 7-2, is Shehastheritestuff for Doug O’Neill and Bejarano. She’s a little more experienced with a four-for-21 lifetime tab. Her last two races have been claimers. Her last win was on July 19, 2017 in an allowance at Del Mar.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 9 (2 also eligible), 7, 8 (3 ae), 8, 10, 10.

Bob Ike’s DM pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 8 Opus Won (3-1)

Sophomore filly from the Richard Baltas stable has come around in her last two starts, breaking her maiden one back and following that up with a good runner-up try to similar Cal-bred allowance/optional claimers last time. A repeat effort should make her tough to deny under Flavien Prat but let’s look for added value by keying her in exactas and trifectas with Shehastheritestuff, Battleground State and Lacey’s Rainbow.

Wednesday’s result: Raymundos Secret was bet like she could not lose (2-5) and didn’t, winning off by herself in impressive fashion. However, we missed in the exotics when my two suggested partners did not fire.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Final thought

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If you have any thoughts, you can reach me at [email protected]. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Wednesday’s results and Thursday’s entries.