The Envelope: Oscar Watch: Tracking the ups and downs of the awards season

Oscar campaigns are always as much about managing expectations as they are about the films themselves.

Next year’s Academy Awards boast plenty of intriguing story lines — a possible third Oscar for Denzel Washington, a battle royal in the lead actress category, the mystery surrounding Martin Scorsese’s long-gestating passion project, “Silence.”

Denzel Washington’s movie adaptation of the August Wilson play “Fences” had a splashy coming-out party Saturday night in Westwood before an audience of about 1,400 academy and guild members and assorted journalists.

The last time a Republican won the White House and lost the popular vote, Oscar voters ended up giving the best picture honor to a flamboyant, rousing and altogether silly movie about a proud Roman soldier fighting for his freedom.

Last week’s initial Oscar predictions brought a query or two from readers questioning my certainty about the best picture chances of Jeff Nichols’ beautiful, moving civil rights drama “Loving.”

Following the New York Film Festival premiere of Ang Lee’s “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk,” the main topic of discussion focused on “frame rate,” and Lee, sounding tentative and a bit nervous about the finished product, asked the audience for “feedback.”

I’m not sure how many times director Ang Lee used the word “baby” the other night when talking about his new movie, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk,” and the innovative technology he used making it.

Once again, it looks to be a three-way race for the best picture Oscar.