L.A.’s ‘off the charts’ dryness keeps risk of new fires high. Rain is desperately needed
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Winds are expected to continue dissipating this week, but it’s shaping up to be a short reprieve for fire-scarred Southern California.
There’s a growing risk that significant fire weather could return in Los Angeles and Ventura counties starting early next week. But even more than winds, the region faces danger from extreme dry conditions and lack of rain.
This article is provided free of charge to help keep our community safe and supported during these devastating fires.
“It’s really been a broken record. Even though Santa Ana winds are common and normal this time of year, it’s not normal to be this dry,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego. “Normally, in between Santa Anas you’ll at least get a rain and a Pacific storm in an average year, and we’re not even seeing that.”
Southern California is seeing one of its driest starts to a winter on record. Much of the region has received just 5% or less of its average rainfall for this point in the water year, which began Oct. 1, Tardy said.
Downtown L.A. has received just 0.16 of an inch of rain since Oct. 1 — 3% of the average at this point in the season, which is 5.56 inches.
Coverage of the firefighters’ battle against Eaton and Palisades fires, including stories about the dangerous weather and victim frustration.
The record low for this 3½-month time period in downtown L.A. was for the water year that began on Oct. 1, 1903 — when only a trace of rain was detected through Jan. 13, 1904, according to data shared by Tardy. The early part of the 1962-63 water year was also very dry, with downtown L.A. receiving only 0.16 of an inch of rain by Jan. 13, 1963.
Downtown L.A.’s annual average rainfall is 14.25 inches.
For many other areas of Southern California, “this is the driest start to any water year,” Tardy said, “and you can see extreme fire behavior with the ignitions.”
In San Diego, just 0.14 of an inch of rain has fallen between Oct. 1 and Jan. 14. That’s the driest start to the water year in 174 years of record keeping. The previous record for that time period was 0.35 inches of rain that accumulated between Oct. 1, 1962 until Jan. 14, 1963, according to Miguel Miller, forecaster for the National Weather Service office in San Diego.
Coverage of the Eaton and Palisades fires, including stories about the unprecedented losses, issues firefighters faced and the winds.
Exacerbating the fire weather situation is that January is the peak month for Santa Ana winds — powerful winds that develop when high pressure over Nevada and Utah sends cold air screaming toward lower pressure areas along the California coast.
The air dries out and compresses and heats up as it flows downslope from the high deserts — from the northeast — over California’s mountains and through canyons, drying out vegetation as the wind gusts through.
Tardy said the magnitude of Santa Ana winds is typically strongest in January, but it’s not typical to have conditions this dry at the same time.
Others agreed.
“During my career, I’ve never seen punishing Santa Ana events so overwhelm the normal winter rain season,” said retired climatologist Bill Patzert.
Coverage of the firefighters’ battle against Eaton and Palisades fires, including stories about the dangerous weather and victim frustration.
In the coming days, Monday and Tuesday are of the most concern at this point, with a 70% chance of red flag warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura counties, which indicates a high likelihood of critical fire behavior should one ignite, according to the National Weather Service.
“The big story is that it just looks very dry all week next week, with a growing risk of red flag warnings,” said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the weather service’s office in Oxnard.
Relative humidity could fall under 10% next week, meaning vegetation will be especially bone dry and vulnerable.
“It just almost looks off the charts,” Kittell said.
As for wind, there is increasing confidence that moderate Santa Anas will develop. As of early Thursday, forecasters estimated the likelihood of a moderate Santa Ana wind event at 70% for Monday and Tuesday. The day before, the probability was pegged at 40%.
There is also still a small chance of a strong Santa Ana wind event.
The winds next week are expected to be influenced by an “inside slider” — a type of low-pressure system that is expected to move down from Canada into interior California and Nevada and bring wind from high pressure over the Great Basin, but not the rain that is desperately needed.
Coverage of the firefighters’ battle against Eaton and Palisades fires, including stories about the dangerous weather and victim frustration.
The system is called an “inside slider” because “it just slides inside, never goes over water, never give us that chance for rain,” Kittell said.
The high pressure that will send cold, dry air to Southern California next week is also being influenced by frigid air expected to move from the Arctic to the Northeastern United States, Tardy said.
“We’re going to be on the windy, dry side of that cold air,” he said.
Before next week’s winds pick up, there will be a few days of a welcome break from severe fire weather after devastating fires that flattened large areas in and around Altadena and Pacific Palisades, destroying thousands of structures including many homes.
“So the moral of the story is we are, thankfully, going to get a break from all this for the end of this week, but unfortunately, it’s going to be short-lived,” Kittell said of dangerous fire weather.
An army of firefighters have worked for days to keep the Eaton and Palisades fires from growing despite weather conditions that have primed the region to burn. The Eaton fire, which has burned 14,100 acres, was 55% contained on Thursday up from 45% a day earlier.
The Palisades fire, which has decimated a 23,700 swath of west Los Angeles, was 22% contained up from 17% the day before, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
With progress being made on the firefight, residents have grown frustrated that they’re not able to return home. More than 150,000 Angelenos remain under evacuation orders and warnings.
Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said during a news conference Thursday that it’ll be at least a week before some people can begin heading back into their neighborhoods. For others, the wait will be longer.
Officials are still searching burned properties in search of additional fatalities and stressed the zones are full of dangerous materials, downed power lines and other hazards that make repopulation untenable right now.
“We’re doing our best, as we know that this is a challenge for our residents,” Marrone said.
Inspections of fire-damaged homes are less than halfway done. Here’s how to check your home’s status
L.A. County officials have been assessing homes in the path of the Palisades and Eaton fires. Maps, still in progress, have photos of the homes and damage estimates.
For now, forecasters don’t expect to issue an alert indicating an extreme red flag warning next week, known as a “particularly dangerous situation.”
As for this week, a “particularly dangerous situation” of extreme red flag fire weather peaked around midday Wednesday for the San Fernando Valley, swaths of Ventura County and the Grapevine section of Interstate 5, and it expired at 3 p.m.
As firefighters contended with another day of dry, windy conditions, residents continued to confront their losses and the pain of not being able to return home.
Gusts of more than 30 mph were seen early Wednesday afternoon along a traditional Santa Ana wind corridor, stretching southwest through places including Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks.
Winds on Wednesday were about as expected, but Tuesday’s winds were less severe than had been anticipated for that day. One potential reason is that the difference in pressure between the ocean and deserts wasn’t as strong as the computers projected, Kittell said.
Another possible reason is that the low-pressure system spinning off the coast — where the westward Santa Ana winds are traveling — wobbled a little bit farther to the north than expected, Kittell said.
Cut off from the prevailing jet stream, that low-pressure system is something called a “cutoff low,” which wobbles around and can be less predictable than if the system were connected to the jet stream.
Cutoff lows are so notorious to forecasters that they’re referred to as “weatherman’s woe,” Kittell said.
Winds and unusually dry conditions played a crucial role in setting the stage for the extreme wildfires ravaging Los Angeles County.
Temperatures will remain much cooler than normal, with highs on Friday — the coldest of the next few days — reaching only 58 degrees in Redondo Beach, Thousand Oaks and Oxnard; 59 in downtown L.A., Long Beach and Covina; 60 in Canoga Park; and 61 in Santa Clarita.
“On the good side for our weather concerns, humidities will continue to climb, especially after [Thursday], with lowering fire weather concerns,” Kittell said. With increasing humidity on Friday and Saturday, there should be fairly minimal fire weather concerns, although there could be localized gusts of between 25 mph and 40 mph from the northwest.
Victims of the Los Angeles County firestorms looking to rebuild their lives arrived at the FEMA disaster recovery center in Pasadena.
The low-pressure system sitting off the Southern California coast will move, but there is only a scant chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday, Kittell said.
“It will eventually move ashore, and all the projections keep it fairly south of Los Angeles County,” Kittell said, “so the chance of rain is very minimal.”
Southern California won’t be much safer from wildfire until plenty of rain falls. There are still no significant chances of rain through Jan. 25, forecasters say.
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