Democrats flip seat in California’s Central Valley in nation’s final outstanding House race

Democrats claimed the final congressional seat in the 2024 election cycle Tuesday as former state lawmaker Adam Gray ousted Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte in a photo-finish race in California’s Central Valley.

California’s 13th Congressional District was the final race to be called for the U.S. House of Representatives, with the closest margin in the country: Just 187 votes separated the two candidates.

Duarte’s loss does not change the balance of power in the House but helps hold Republicans to a razor-thin majority.

The Central Valley seat represents one of three congressional districts that Democrats flipped in California this year, a rare bright spot for the party during an election marked by a broader conservative shift. Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate and the White House and flipped three seats in the California Legislature, while Golden State voters rejected several progressive ballot measures.

But none of those contests were as tight as the race for a congressional seat in a purple swath of the Central Valley.

“It was an insanely close race this time, and it was an insanely close race last time,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic campaign consultant and vice president of Political Data Inc.

Gray, who has built a reputation as a moderate “Valleycrat,” Mitchell said, was “probably uniquely qualified to even make this district as competitive as it was.”

The nearly monthlong wait for the outcome of the San Joaquin Valley race exemplifies California’s famously unhurried vote-counting process. The state counts every mail ballot that is postmarked by election day and arrives within a week, and gives voters nearly a month to correct technical issues with their ballots.

Republicans and Democrats waged massive campaigns in the 13th District to count ballots flagged for technicalities, such as a missing signature or a signature that doesn’t match the voter’s information on file. Hundreds of volunteers and campaign staffers went door to door to notify voters and walk them through how to correct the issues, a process known as “curing.”

After trailing in the first three weeks of vote-counting, Gray took the lead Nov. 26 as mail ballots tilted in his favor. Mitchell said his analysis showed that 1,310 registered Republicans in the 13th District fixed technical issues with their ballots, while 2,186 Democrats did — far greater than the race’s 187-vote margin of victory.

Gray narrowly lost to Duarte by 564 votes two years ago, when both men were first-time congressional candidates. Such close outcomes, two cycles in a row, could suggest a divided electorate, Gray said, but he sees a common thread, saying he and Duarte “ran similar campaigns, in the sense that we were talking about independent leadership.”

“We have different views of what that means,” Gray said. “But I think you could say that 100% of the voters in this district are looking for independent, accountable leadership in Washington that’s more focused on their needs and the needs of the district than focused on the needs of Washington and the political parties.”

Duarte conceded to Gray on Tuesday evening, a few hours before the Associated Press called the race. He told the Turlock Journal that he wouldn’t rule out another run in two years.

“That’s how it goes,” Duarte said. “I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever. But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.”

With Duarte’s loss, Republicans will hold 220 seats in the House next year — barely above the 218-seat threshold needed to control the chamber — and Democrats will hold 215.

The GOP will have an even narrower majority for parts of January. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) resigned from the House last month. Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida has been tapped to be President-elect Donald Trump’s national security advisor and is expected to step down, as is Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York if she is confirmed as United Nations ambassador.

The 13th Congressional District was one of a half-dozen California seats seen as pivotal in the fight for control of Congress, and was one of three that Democrats flipped.

In Orange County, Democrat Derek Tran ousted Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, and in northern Los Angeles County, Democrat George Whitesides beat Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. Democrats also held on to a seat being vacated by Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), with state Sen. Dave Min beating Republican Scott Baugh.

Republicans fared better in the Central Valley’s other swing district, where Rep. David Valadao defeated Democrat Rudy Salas by almost 7 points. Salas on Tuesday filed to run for Congress again in 2026.

The GOP also held a seat in Riverside County, where voters reelected longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert over Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor.

California

In a ‘purple’ California district, a GOP congressman fights to defend a seat he won by 564 votes

In 2022, GOP Rep. John Duarte beat Adam Gray by just 564 votes. Both men are campaigning hard to win the rematch in a moderate Central Valley district.

Sept. 28, 2024

The rural 13th Congressional District stretches from Coalinga to Modesto, encompassing Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.

The district appears blue on paper, with 42% of registered voters affiliated with the Democratic Party, compared with 29% registered as Republicans and 22% registered with no party preference.

But the Central Valley is more purple than the deep-blue districts that surround the Bay Area and Los Angeles, and conservative Democrats in the area often cross party lines to elect Republicans.

Duarte, whose family owns a large farm in the San Joaquin Valley, pitched himself as a moderate Republican, saying he had bucked his party on abortion and immigration, instead sticking to middle-of-the-road policy proposals. He campaigned on lowering gas prices and the cost of living.

Gray cast himself as a “radical centrist,” pointing to his decade in the state Assembly as proof that he could work across party lines. He told The Times this summer that he chose to run again because he thought Duarte, and Republicans, had accomplished little in Congress to help everyday Americans.

Gray didn’t attend freshman orientation in D.C. while votes were still counted in the district, but said that after a decade of experience in the state Legislature, his learning curve in Congress may not be as steep as for some other freshmen.

He said he hasn’t received his committee assignments but plans to focus on water policy, farming and healthcare. Gray helped to establish the UC Merced medical school, and said he hopes the facility can become a UC hospital, similar to facilities at UCLA, UC San Francisco and UC Irvine.