What dark horse will be next ‘Sunshine’?

Though the Sundance Film Festival takes understandable pains to distance itself from Hollywood, it becomes more apparent every year that William Goldman’s great rule of studio filmmaking applies to the independent world as well: Nobody knows anything.

Last year, for instance, the experts who huffed that Fox Searchlight overpaid by spending $10 million plus to acquire “Little Miss Sunshine” didn’t know that the film would turn into an Oscar contender and in the process gross $60 million to date in the U.S. alone.

Similarly, last year’s dramatic competition jury not only didn’t give the grand jury prize to “Half Nelson” (it went to “Quinceanera” instead), it totally ignored what turned out to be the most critically acclaimed independent film of the year. Go figure.

Yet as the 2007 edition of the festival prepares to open Thursday night with “Chicago 10,” Brett Morgan’s look at a paradigmatic 1960s event, this lack of advance knowledge starts to seem like one of Sundance’s charms.

Unlike other festivals, where the heavyweights are more or less predictable, this event is so focused on unseen films by unfamiliar directors that the identities of the successes and failures simply aren’t knowable in advance.

Will “The Savages” dream pairing of Laura Linney and Philip Seymour Hoffman as brother and sister pay off as expected? Will “Hounddog,” which stars 12-year-old Dakota Fanning of “Charlotte’s Web” as a rape victim (no, that is not a misprint), be the festival’s inevitable succes de scandale, or will that slot be taken by “Zoo,” Robinson Devor’s documentary on men having sex with horses? No one, at this point, can say.

In general terms, however, certain things are predictable. For one thing, it will likely attract more and more visitors, just as it has called forth an increasing number of entrants: The 122 features in this year’s event were culled from a whopping 3,287 submissions, a Sundance record.

If press releases are any indication, Sundance will also continue to be a mecca for celebrities and those who lovingly pander to their every need. New York’s transplanted Marquee nightclub promises “the ultimate luxury hospitality suite for high-profile talent to get away from the hustle and bustle of the festival,” while something called Chefdance “merges gourmet dining, celebrities, charity and top films.” Even humble journalists are offered the opportunity to “experience snowboarding through the Burton Learn to Ride program.” Just one thing: “Please bring your own snow outerwear.”

For those who come to Park City, Utah, for the films (remember those?), Sundance is as always determined to do the unexpected. Here’s Bob Shaye, the head of New Line Cinema, returning to directing with the sci-fi themed “The Last Mimzy.” Here’s Anthony Hopkins directing “Slip Stream,” a film apparently so out there it premieres in the experimental New Frontier section. Here’s “Zidane: A 21st Century Portrait,” perhaps the most unusual sports film you’ll ever see. And here’s two acclaimed documentary filmmakers, Jeffrey Blitz (“Spellbound”) and Nick Broomfield (“Aileen: Life and Death of a Serial Killer”), both turning to fiction films, Blitz with “Rocket Science” and Broomfield with “Ghosts.”

One thing that isn’t a surprise is that the selection of documentary films continues to be amazingly strong across all categories. For example, Jon Else’s “Wonders Are Many” ambitiously chronicles both the making of the atomic bomb and the making of “Doctor Atomic,” the John Adams-Peter Sellars opera about that event. In the main documentary competition, some of the most satisfying docs include, in alphabetical order:

“Chasing Ghosts.” A look at the early days of video gaming, when genially obsessed competitors with “egos the size of cathedrals” duked it out on Donkey Kong and other pursuits.

“Crazy Love.” Dan Klores talks to Burt Pugach and Linda Riss, the players in a truly obsessive relationship that turned into the great tabloid scandal story of 1950s New York.

“For the Bible Tells Me So.” A provocative, revisionist film that movingly intercuts the stories of Christian families with gay members with a theological examination of what the Bible is actually saying when it calls homosexuality an abomination.

“Ghosts of Abu Ghraib.” Rory Kennedy takes a controlled, candid and remarkably thorough look at all sides of what happened at that infamous Iraqi prison and why.

“My Kid Could Paint Like That” looks at the world of a 4-year-old girl whose paintings have sold for tens of thousands of dollars.

“Protagonist.” Jessica Yu’s accomplished, boundary-pushing documentary that compellingly mixes interview footage with character puppets to detail the lives of four men and show how their dramas echo the work of the Greek playwright Euripides.

Foreign documentary highlights include “Crossing the Line,” about the aftereffects of an American soldier’s 1962 defection to North Korea; “Hot House,” an intimate, total-access visit to the world of Israel’s imprisoned Palestinians; and “Manufactured Landscapes,” a cool meditation on a photographer who records enormous industrial landscapes.

Sundance also has at least one irresistible short doc (“The Fighting Cholitas,” about Bolivian women who professionally wrestle wearing traditional dress) and several dramas worth looking at. These include “Dark Matter,” Chinese opera director Chen Shi-Zheng’s feature debut; “Longford,” which pairs Jim Broadbent and Samantha Morton in a script by Peter Morgan; and “Padre Nuestro,” a disturbing, smartly directed debut feature by Christopher Zalla about an involuntary exchange of identities.

Across town, the Slamdance Film Festival, which celebrates its 13th year by characterizing itself as a bunch of “rebel teenagers,” also has a strong group of documentaries. Some of the best include “Unsettled,” a study of the forced evacuation of the Gaza Strip’s Israeli settlements; “The Bad Boys of Summer,” a look at San Quentin’s baseball team; “The Ballad of AJ Weberman,” about the celebrated/notorious Bob Dylan expert; and an examination of men who race across the Atlantic in rowboats, called “Row Hard No Excuses.” Which, in truth, would serve as a good motto for the entire Sundance-Slamdance experience.

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