Schroeder Ahead by a Hair After TV Debate

BERLIN —  Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Bavarian Gov. Edmund Stoiber took their neck-and-neck race to lead Germany into the homes of millions Sunday with a rigorous televised debate that polls showed the incumbent won despite appearing uncharacteristically stiff and defensive.

The first televised clash between chancellor candidates in German history surprised most analysts, because the telegenic and easygoing Schroeder had been expected to dominate the exchange in style if not in substance.

But Stoiber took an aggressive tack from the onset, hammering at his opponent’s failure to reduce 10% unemployment despite having made that his No. 1 campaign promise when he was elected four years ago.

Confident and well-prepared, the 60-year-old challenger lashed out at Schroeder’s economic record, repeatedly challenging him to explain why he should be reelected when he has been unable to deliver the economic turnaround German voters have demanded.

Schroeder stuck to a statesmanlike solemnity under Stoiber’s persistent needling--a demeanor viewers apparently considered dignified. In a telephone poll of 2,237 viewers conducted by the Forsa institute, Schroeder won higher marks on all three qualities measured: pleasantness, competence and credibility.

Two other polls, for public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, split in their assessments of which candidate “won” the debate.

“Viewers apparently liked that [Schroeder] remained calm and businesslike. They see that as a more competent response than engaging in a fight,” observed political analyst Stefan Aust of the poll results. He, like others on hand for the live broadcast, thought Stoiber had turned in the more impressive performance.

Although Schroeder has long outpolled Stoiber in one-on-one personality contests, his Social Democratic Party trails the Bavarian’s Christian Social Union and its Christian Democrat partner by between 1 and 3 percentage points. The debate was seen as a chance for Schroeder to narrow that gap by swaying some of the more than 30% of voters who are still undecided four weeks before the vote scheduled Sept. 22.

“Schroeder didn’t put on a very good performance despite expectations, and Stoiber, well, he was Stoiber,” event planner and society critic Beate Wedekind told ZDF television in one of many postmortems aired as soon as the candidates stopped speaking. “I put the score at 0-0, as neither of them took advantage of their opportunities.”

Stoiber, often pedantic and saddled with an off-putting Bavarian accent, did manage to tarnish Schroeder’s recently boosted image as a cool head in a crisis.

Since flooding swept through eastern Germany earlier this month, inflicting billions of dollars in damage and washing away years of post-reunification labor, Schroeder has been seen as more sincere and engaged than his challenger and has won high marks for swiftly drafting a financing package for recovery. But Stoiber caustically remarked that even the massive reconstruction effort won’t mask the fundamental flaws in the government’s tax and labor policies.

“Without tax relief for small businesses, we won’t see any improvement in the unemployment figures,” Stoiber charged, calling the incumbent’s economic policies “an absolute catastrophe.”

Schroeder repeated his vow to keep Germany out of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq unless and until the U.N. Security Council endorses such action. Stoiber deftly lacerated that position while refraining from any commitment to do otherwise should he become chancellor.

“No German chancellor from either party would take part in any military adventure,” Stoiber observed, while noting that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is an internationally recognized war criminal and widely thought to be producing weapons of mass destruction.

“But I consider it irresponsible to exclude even a theoretical option,” Stoiber said of Schroeder’s position, hinting that Hussein could be emboldened by the knowledge that North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies are divided over how to deal with him.

While Stoiber clearly scored better on economic issues, Schroeder probably won over voters shaken by the devastating flooding with his emphasis on the government’s commitment to environmental protection, renewable energy development and compliance with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which is aimed at halting global warming.

“We want to be the ones who bring Kyoto out of the realm of theory and into real practice,” Schroeder said, noting that Germany has already cut greenhouse gas emissions by twice as much as all other European countries put together.

The chancellor also plucked heartstrings with a tribute to the unity and camaraderie exhibited by Germans amid the flooding disaster.

“Powerful forces have been set free in hardship--a readiness to help others, to work together, to shoulder the load equally. There is a new quality of solidarity and commitment to the common good,” he said.

Because of its novelty, the debate was treated here like a historical event. More than 300 celebrities, politicians and artists sipped wine and nibbled canapes as they watched the candidates on monitors in an adjacent hall of the Adlerhof TV station, from which the debate was aired by private broadcasters RTL and Sat.1.

The networks estimated that they drew 70% of the national audience. In Grimma, a town hard hit by the flooding, a big-screen TV was set up in the main square so those without homes or electricity could still watch.

The televised clash had been the subject of media speculation for weeks, as columnists and commentators contrasted the contenders’ media savvy and debated the merit of personalizing what comes down to a choice between parties. Germans do not directly elect their chancellor but rather the party that will advance its top candidate to the office.

While unlikely to be as decisive as the 1960 showdown between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, Germany’s first televised debate could inject more personal dynamics into a campaign that has been lacking flair. To date, the only sparks that have flown were in a short-lived squabble over whether Schroeder dyes his hair.

The debate was unprecedented in Germany because previous incumbents have been unwilling to give their rivals a chance to shine on prime-time television. Stoiber proposed the U.S.-style showdown when he was handily ahead of Schroeder in the polls, and the incumbent accepted the challenge.

It was something of a political risk for both candidates, as German voters tend to regard election campaigns more seriously than do Americans. Party conventions have little of the pageantry and celebratory atmosphere of U.S. conventions, and too much television exposure tends to draw accusations of “showmanship”--frowned upon by older Germans, who consider it unseemly.