From the Makers of the Big Bang, a Sequel: the Slow Burn

Two University of Michigan astrophysicists announced last week that the beginning of the end will occur in 10,000 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion years. At that time, they said, the sun will have long been dead and the lights of other stars will have vanished. It’ll be pretty much lights out for the universe and we can all get in our cars and go home.

I’ll bet each of them $5,000 they’re wrong. And another five grand says they’re off by more than a trillion years.

Few stories both fascinate and amuse me as do those about the cosmos. It’s one of those subjects about which I’ll read endlessly while understanding nothing. And this thought always occurs: Is there a safer job in America than predicting the end of the universe? Is there some other occupation where you can miss a prediction by a trillion years and not lose your job?

Mind you, I enjoy making the occasional prediction--if not the outright grandiose statement--but within reasonable boundaries. A prediction is whether the stock market will go up or down 200 points this year. It’s whether the Angels will win their division. Whether Interstate 5 construction will ever end.

Predicting that the universe will end in trillions of years strikes me as the ultimate hedge. It’s like betting all eight horses in the race.

On the other hand, the very reason these cosmos stories enthrall me is because of the astronomical numbers. To think that anything is that old or that hot or that far away is mind-boggling. I’m reminded of the humorist who, while noting the sun was 93 million miles away, added, “Although on cold winter days it seems farther.”

So it is with the universe. While poring over some articles in the last couple years, I found one from August 1996 that cited a study indicating the stars in the Milky Way are at least 9.5 billion years old, “meaning that our galaxy and indeed the universe cannot be any younger than that.”

Oh, no? An article two months earlier read: “ . . . Astronomers using NASA’S Hubble Space Telescope may have confirmed earlier measurements suggesting that the universe may be--paradoxically--younger than its oldest stars.”

Come on, people, get your stories straight.

Speaking of which, this from 1994 about a group of scientists from the University of Indiana: “Their calculations led them to believe the universe could be as little as 7 billion years old, compared to previous estimates of as much as 20 billion.” Hmm. The previous estimates were off by a mere 13 billion years?

And you thought psychiatry was an imprecise science.

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In case you missed the story last week, here’s what the Michiganders foresee, according to a New York Times article: The sun will die in 5 billion years, “reduced to an extinct remnant known as a white dwarf. Earth might survive the solar death throes, but its oceans would boil away from the heat, and life, if it endured that long, would no longer be possible.” The end of all star formations would come in 100 trillion years.

The “degenerate era” would follow but, believe me, you don’t want to hear the details. The key point is that that era will end in 10 trillion trillion trillion years. Then it’s on to the “black hole era” that would last even longer.

After that, according to the scientists, the dark era. The beginning of the end.

Well, who’s to say? The article had the good form to interview another astrophysicist, who said, “We have given up on the notion that the laws of physics are known absolutely. So it’s awfully hard to know if they are the real truth or be sure that they won’t fail sometime in the distant future, leading to a completely different outcome.”

What a great job, huh, being an astrophysicist?

None of this is meant to impugn the scientists, who are without question crackling geniuses. Their brainpower is awesome, and anyone who ever sat next to a smart kid in high school physics class knows what I mean.

But my plea is for a bit more practicality. Why grow old wondering if an asteroid can be reached in 11 light years or 12? Why worry about the fate of neutrinos in the year 2000 to the 23rd power.

Put that noodle to better use. For instance, I’ve got a fifty burning a hole in my pocket. Tell me, please, will the Packers cover in the Super Bowl?

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at The Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, CA 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.