Bearish on the Pac-10

BERKELEY —  Easy pickings? Not in this conference, new California Coach Ben Braun says quietly, quickly and deadly serious, not in this season.

Not Oregon State, the doormat of the last few Pacific 10 seasons, which rose up to almost knock off Texas earlier this season; not Oregon, which won its first nine games for the first time in two decades; not Washington’s towering front line, Washington State’s clutch players and USC’s developing mix of talent.

Especially, and perhaps most strikingly, not Cal, which was expected to be devastated by mass off-season departures.

No Pac-10 gimme games, Braun says, not this season.

“I guess we were supposed to be one of those teams,” Braun said with a touch of impish sarcasm as he sat in his office last week, “I don’t know.”

In an early season performance that has symbolized the conference’s across-the-board improvement, the newly organized and hustling Bears have traveled to Maui and twice to the East Coast, played a series of monster opponents, and emerged 9-2 entering their conference opener tonight at Arizona.

“I think it’s the most dangerous league since I’ve been here, from top to bottom,” said UCLA interim Coach Steve Lavin, who was Jim Harrick’s assistant for five years. “It doesn’t have the marquee names that it had a couple years ago, the Jason Kidds-Lamond Murrays at Cal, Murray, MacLean and O’Bannon here, Brent Barry, Harold Miner. . . .

“But you’ve got a parity from top to bottom of just solid quality that you didn’t have before. This reminds me more of what the Big Ten was like when I was there [as an assistant at Purdue in the mid-’80s].”

For instance, Cal’s only two losses are to Kansas (11-0) and Maryland (11-1), and the Bears have registered victories over Iowa (9-3), Illinois (10-2) and Penn State (7-2).

In a transition season--Braun was hired on the fly on Sept. 15--in which a .500 season would have been excusable, suddenly, the Bears are looking at an NCAA berth if they can finish in the top half of the league.

All this without last season’s freshman and player of the year, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who bolted to the NBA, former coach Todd Bozeman, who resigned late last summer amid the beginnings of an NCAA investigation into potential recruiting violations, and Jelani Gardner and Tremaine Fowlkes, two major talents who transferred to other schools.

“We lost some significant go-to people,” said the intense, 42-year-old Braun, who led Eastern Michigan to a 25-6 record and a first-round NCAA victory over Duke last season. “I’d be lying if I said we don’t miss having a player of that caliber.

“But the thing, though, is it now gives some of our other players an opportunity that they didn’t have last year, and I think so far they’ve taken advantage of it.”

Multiplication by subtraction? During Bozeman’s high-wire Cal tenure, the Bears were usually loaded with talent, but were perennial underachievers squabbling over playing time and shot selection.

At his usual breakneck pace, Braun has eliminated Bozeman’s haphazard substitution patterns and freelance offensive philosophies and handed clearly defined roles to his non-lottery leftovers.

Ed Gray is the bombardier scoring threat (23 points a game, leading the conference) and actually has been seen playing defense this season; Prentice McGruder and Randy Duck distribute the ball; and unheralded big men Michael Stewart, Sean Marks and Alfred Grigsby work on the offensive post, rebound and block shots.

Cal, which allowed Pac-10 opponents to shoot 45.1% from the field last season, is holding opponents to 37.6% this season, best in the conference.

“Ben Braun has been able to come in and give them a sense of purpose. They’ve drawn together, and they’re defending,” Stanford Coach Mike Montgomery said.

“I’ve said from the get-go that people are making too big of a deal of what they lost instead of focusing on what they had coming back.”

The rest of the conference, by alphabetical order:

ARIZONA

Surprise! The Wildcats are playing without last season’s leading scorer, Miles Simon, because of academic problems (he could be back Jan. 10 or possibly not at all), and don’t have any bangers inside. But Coach Lute Olson has ninth-ranked Arizona rolling along at 7-2 (both defeats were on the road, to New Mexico and Michigan) with uptempo athleticism and red-hot shooting.

Key figures: In place of Simon, small forward Michael Dickerson started off blazing (22.6 points a game), and freshman point guard Mike Bibby has been as brilliant as advertised. Add in Jason Terry, and Arizona has three players among the conference’s top 10 steal-makers.

Best-case scenario: Blow through the conference, get a No. 1 or 2 regional seeding for the tournament, then hope Bibby is ready to drag the team to glory.

ARIZONA STATE

Losing swingman Quincy Brewer because of injury last week was devastating, but guard Jeremy Veal (18.8 points a game) could be the conference’s best pure shooter. Led by efficient freshman Eddie House, the Sun Devils (7-4) are averaging 12.7 turnovers a game, and are forcing 21.7, the best margin in the conference.

Key figure: Mike Batiste, a transfer from Compton College, has been eligible for three games and averaged 16 points and eight rebounds.

Best-case scenario: Anything more than last season’s six conference victories.

OREGON

One of five unbeaten teams left in the nation, the 20th-ranked Ducks (9-0), who have beaten Fresno State and Temple, are gearing up for a once-in-a-quarter-century run this season.

Can they blast through the elite group of Arizona, UCLA and Stanford? See if the Ducks can win early conference games away from McArthur Court.

Key figure: Senior point guard Kenya Wilkins has been the Pac-10’s most valuable player, and if he can stay anywhere near efficient as he has been--64.1% from the field, 86.3% from the free-throw line (both No. 1 in the conference) and an 18.1 scoring average--he could keep that label through March. Wilkins’ career shooting percentage before this season was .377.

Best-case scenario: Can you say . . . Pac-10 champion Ducks?

OREGON STATE

In Eddie Payne’s second season, the Beavers are 4-5 and their future is hinging on two freshmen--point guard Carson Cunningham and swingman Corey Benjamin.

Key figure: Benjamin, the quickest, most-talented player in Corvallis since Gary Payton.

Best-case scenario: One or two road shockers, anything close to .500 at home, and the Beavers could be moving toward contention by 1998.

STANFORD

Montgomery insists that unless the 21st-ranked Cardinal (7-1) develops major options other than senior point guard Brevin Knight and junior center Tim Young, Stanford may not fulfill its huge expectations.

Key figure: Sophomore shooter Kris Weems could be the answer--he’s making 64.1% of his three-point shots, a Pac-10 record pace.

Best-case scenario: Knight refuses to let Stanford fail to make the Sweet 16 and the squad’s three-point shooting doesn’t falter.

UCLA

Even the most loyal Bruin followers aren’t looking for a third consecutive 16-2 conference record, not after last season’s charmed run of last-moment victories and this season’s fitful (5-3) start.

Key figure: Most often, UCLA plays well when J.R. Henderson does, and the Bruins get shaken up when he does too.

Best-case scenario: Figure things out for a February charge, figure out a way to beat Duke or Louisville, figure on a hard-won berth to the NCAA tournament.

USC

The Trojans were worried that a lack of supporting cast for Rodrick Rhodes and Stais Boseman might make for trouble, but it is the inconsistent play of the two seniors that has the team at 5-3.

While the two are the team’s leading scorers, they are also the team leaders in rules broken. Each has been reprimanded twice, including one-game suspensions against Ohio State. They also have disappeared when most needed (in losses to Tennessee and Nevada Las Vegas), overshadowing strong showings earlier in the season.

Key figure: Rhodes can score five points in 30 seconds, as he did against Nevada Las Vegas, but he, along with Boseman, needs to take over more when the Trojan offense stalls.

Best-case scenario: Six games from Jan. 9-26 against Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and Cincinnati will determine if a 17-win season, and the NCAA tournament, is a possibility.

WASHINGTON

The Huskies (7-1) played a weak preconference schedule. But, because of a talented front line--Todd MacCulloch and Patrick Femerling are 7-footers and Mark Sanford could be playing in the NBA right now--Washington is a major threat.

Key figure: MacCulloch is beginning to blossom in his sophomore season--he has had two 30-plus point outings, and is making 79.1% of his field goals (second in Pac-10) and 84.8% of his free throws (sixth).

Best-case scenario: Washington wins the majority of the battles with Cal, USC and Washington State, gets two or three high-profile wins, then holds its breath and hopes for an NCAA tournament berth.

WASHINGTON STATE

The preconference season has been all about defense--the Cougars aren’t scoring very much or rebounding terrifically, but have won eight of 11 games because they’re holding opponents to 39% shooting and 62.7 points a game.

Key figure: Tavares Mack left the team then returned, but junior Carlos Daniel has filled the void at forward, leading the Pac-10 with an 8.4 rebound average.

Best-case scenario: Gets a quick start against UCLA-USC on the road and the Oregon schools at home, hangs on for upper-division finish and fulfills NCAA dreams.

Times staff writer George Dohrmann contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

PAC-10 STANDINGS

*--*

Team Rank W L Pct. Oregon 20 9 0 1.000 Stanford 21 7 1 .875 Washington -- 7 1 .875 California -- 9 2 .818 Arizona 9 7 2 .778 Washington State -- 8 3 .727 Arizona State -- 7 4 .636 UCLA -- 5 3 .625 USC -- 5 3 .625 Oregon State -- 4 5 .444

*--*

CONFERENCE COMPARISON

*--*

Conference W L Pct. Atlantic Coast 74 11 .871 Big 12 97 29 .770 Big Ten 88 29 .752 *Pacific 10 67 23 .744 Big East 80 29 .734 Southeastern 95 43 .688 Western Athletic 113 54 .677 Conference USA 79 51 .608 Atlantic 10 59 44 .573

*--*

* Oregon-Oregon State game on Dec. 28 in Far West Classic not included.