The Annual Crystal Ball

Pundits love nothing better than a new year. A vast yawning emptiness, a blank slate, begs to be filled with opinions, predictions and plain old pontificating. No one can tell you that you’re wrong--yet. And, if experience is anything to go by, no one will hold you accountable for your guesses a year from now.

Still, the challenge is irresistible. What does 1997 hold for wine? When anybody asks that question, what they really want to know is whether prices will get better.

You mean cheaper? No way. Winemakers cleaned up in 1996, selling their goodies for more money than most dared to fantasize, and nothing that could happen in the next year short of economic collapse could rain on their parade to the bank.

The world has never seen such high wine prices, and it’s going to keep on seeing them. Why? It’s that old economics warhorse, supply and demand. Demand for California wines has never been higher--and not just in California, either. More than any other time, they are entrenched on wine lists everywhere in America.

What’s more, the root louse phylloxera has devastated tens of thousands of vineyard acres, reducing the grape supply. Wineries are paying more money than ever for grapes and at the same time making less wine. As one wholesaler put it, “I used to have to sell wine. Now, I just allocate it.”

One effect of this, by the way, is a sneaky little development on the ostensibly American jug wine front. Next time you pick up a bottle of inexpensive wine that used to be Californian, such as Fetzer’s Bel Arbors brand, look closely at the label. The odds are good that it will say something like “Valle Central.” Somewhere else on the label, in very small letters, you’ll read that the wine actually comes from Chile. The grape shortage has sent producers of low-cost big brands scrambling abroad for cheap wines that California can no longer supply.

Elsewhere, the picture is not much brighter. Bordeaux is offering wine futures--you pay (dearly) now and get your wine a year later--for higher prices than ever before. Among Bordeaux fanciers, who have been waiting impatiently for a great year, the ballyhooed 1995 vintage set off a futures stampede. Wines that sold only a few years ago for $350 a case are asking--and getting--twice that or more. Crazy? You betcha.

Burgundy, which has never been a buyer’s paradise, also saw a great vintage in 1995, which is just getting released now. But prices are at an all-time high, thanks to a crop that was significantly smaller than usual. White Burgundies (Chardonnay) are selling for up to twice as much as the 1994 vintage, itself a swell year for the white wines.

And so it goes. Everywhere fine wine is produced--Oregon, Washington, Chianti, Piedmont, Veneto, the best parts of Spain and Australia--prices are increasing as a result of demand.

That said, don’t despair. There always are deals, nowhere more than in the Los Angeles area. This is worth noting if only as a consolation prize. Los Angeles is the world’s most price-competitive wine market. Nowhere else--not New York or San Francisco or London--are so many fine wines offered at such discounts.

In the same vein, another development in 1997 will be an increase in buying wines by mail. Although hardly new, mail purchase still seems like a novelty to many casual wine buyers, even in California, where the practice was pioneered. Technically, 13 states now allow consumers to buy wines across state lines tax-free. In reality, the whole country has broken wide open, although a few states, such as Florida, Kentucky and New Jersey, are cracking down. Most others are looking the other way.

What this means in 1997 and beyond is a growing concentration of powerful retailers located in just a few geographic areas, Los Angeles supreme among them. Their size gives them clout, which in turn means that they can get supplies that the smaller retailers cannot. Wine buyers on the prowl pick up the phone and call from everywhere. The wines are shipped by a common carrier, like United Parcel Service, for a modest sum. Wine by mail is slowly but definitively changing how the world’s best wines get sold. And the trend will only accelerate in 1997, thanks to the continuing fine-wine shortage.

As for the wines themselves, certain existing trends will pick up. More California wines are sporting appellation designations. Powerhouse Napa Valley has finally sorted itself out and defined some long-vague regions, such as Oakville and Rutherford. We will see a growing number of California wines presented to us not merely as Chardonnay or Cabernet but as something from Russian River Valley or Howell Mountain.

Why is this happening? Money. A Napa Valley Cabernet grape that arrives at the winery with an appellation pedigree like Howell Mountain fetches 30% more than a grape entitled only to a mere Napa Valley designation.

Once a grape variety becomes a commodity, as Chardonnay and Cabernet have, you’ve got to distinguish your wine somehow. The French learned centuries ago that there’s no other way to advertise your wine’s distinction from your neighbor’s than by pointing to where the grapes are grown. The same truth now applies here too.

Discussing California wines by appellation used to be almost an affectation. Now it’s commonplace, a handy way of talking about differences created by place rather than by winemaking style.

Will we see new or different wines in 1997? I would dearly like to say yes, but this looks like a sure no. For all the drum-banging about Rho^ne or Italian varietals, American wine these days is more about the grapes we already know and love. I don’t think I need to name them. Hint: They both start with C. Yes, we will see more home-grown Syrah and Sangiovese, but not so you’d notice. They’ll be fringe wines, however good.

Perhaps the only newcomer with real potential is Pinot Noir. There can be no question that Pinot Noir finally has arrived in California, to say nothing of that perennial pretender to the Pinot Noir throne, Oregon. Between these two states, the supply of genuinely good Pinot Noir is growing. Only now is there enough for American Pinot Noir to make inroads where it counts: restaurants and big retailers. You need critical mass, as well as quality. For Pinot Noir, it’s only just now coming together.

Overall, 1997 looks as if it will be a swell year for drinking really good wines. Those 1995 Burgundies will be trickling in. Advice: Make friends with your retailer.

Italian wines also performed in the newly released 1995 vintage. Advice: Look for red wines from Piedmont and whites from Friuli.

Bargains will be rarer than ever. Advice: Get on the mailing lists of several retailers.

Above all, 1997 looks as if it will be a year when we can enjoy our wines in peace. Sanity has set in on the subject of drinking in moderation. Even the U.S. government has acknowledged, however grudgingly, what dozens of medical studies have confirmed: A glass or two of wine makes life (and the day) better.