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NEWS ANALYSIS : GADDI VASQUEZ BOWS OUT : Experts See Little Effect on Tax Vote, Big Effect on Race : More than one supervisor would have to go to change minds on Measure R. But opening is sure to attract more candidates in March.

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TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

In assessing the surprise announcement Wednesday that Supervisor Gaddi H. Vasquez will not seek reelection to the Board of Supervisors, few dared the view that his departure would soothe the public anger enough to become a decisive factor in the June 27 half-cent sales tax election.

“That’s a good start,” said former Irvine Mayor Larry Agran of Vasquez’s decision to leave county government, becoming what many are describing as a sacrifice to the bankruptcy that scorched the county in December.

“If I would hear it from [Supervisor Roger R.] Stanton, that he is to follow suit, it would be a very important factor for me” in deciding on the sales tax, Agran said. The onetime Democrat presidential candidate has said he would do an about-face and support Measure R, which is part of the county-authored recovery plan, if the three supervisors who were in office in December would resign or vow to not run again.

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On Wednesday, however, the other supervisors--Stanton and William G. Steiner--said they would do no such thing.

Many proponents of the half-cent sales tax were quick Wednesday to say their campaigns are helped by Vasquez’s decision to not seek reelection and to leave office when his term expires in December, 1996.

“I think it is extremely positive news,” said Dan Wooldridge, the political consultant running a Yes on R committee funded by the law enforcement community. “The first thing voters tell us that they won’t support [the sales tax] until the supervisors get out or announce they are leaving office.”

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Only Sheriff Brad Gates, who is running Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility, the main Yes on R campaign committee, resisted the temptation to seize on the Vasquez decision as a certain boon for the sales tax proposal.

“I don’t see how this has much effect on Measure R at all,” said Gates, adding that it could possibly satisfy some people’s anger. “If anything, it does remove an excuse from the formula for voting No.”

Opponents see the election as already decided.

“This will have no impact on the election,” said Buck Johns, a leader in the Citizens Against the Tax Increase. “I think it is too late. People have begun to firm up now. I think if he and Roger [Stanton] had done it at the outset, it would have had a major impact.”

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The impact would be less than a percentage point, Johns said.

Doy Henley, who heads the politically conservative and powerful Lincoln Club, also foresees the tax measure’s demise.

“There are some who say if the supervisors resign they would vote for Measure R, but I don’t think there are enough to make a difference,” he said. “I think Measure R is going to be toast by an overwhelming percentage.”

A recent Times Orange County Poll showed the measure trailing among likely voters 50% to 37%, with half of all voters expressing anger and strong antipathy toward county government and the supervisors. Many responding to that poll and surveys taken by both campaigns have focused their scorn on the supervisors.

“I think [Vasquez’s decision] is very meaningful,” said Mark Baldassare, a professor of urban affairs at UC Irvine who conducted the poll. Having “one of the three supervisors who was there at the time of the bankruptcy” decide to move on “is the kind of decision that voters are looking for to satisfy their anger and their desire for change in county government.”

Baldassare said the decision could move some to vote for the sales tax, but “it may not be enough.”

Political consultants such as Harvey Englander and Bruce Nestande, who served on the Board of Supervisors, differed on what effect the Vasquez decision would have on the election. Nestande said it would have “negligible impact because part of the hostility by voters” has made the supervisors irrelevant to the campaign. Englander, however, believes “it could help. Certainly if Stanton did the same thing, it would help [Measure R] even more.”

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There are thousands of voters the announcement won’t affect at all. About 65,000 have already cast votes by absentee ballot.

Just as they disagreed about the effect of the decision on the Measure R vote, people viewed Vasquez’s announcement according to their political prisms.

County GOP Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes, a vociferous opponent of the tax who also had been mentioned as a possible challenger to Vasquez, declared Measure R a “defining issue” for voters.

“No officeholder who supports the passage of Measure R could ever hope to be reelected,” he said. He likened the tax proposal to “watershed issues” such as Proposition 13, the death penalty and the voting out of office of California Supreme Court Chief Justice Rose Bird. “Gaddi is a capable politician and he would have had to assess those tea leaves and see that.”

Not everyone was convinced that Vasquez would lose a reelection bid, given the approximately $300,000 he has in his campaign treasury.

“He stood probably a better-than-even chance of being reelected,” said Larry Thomas, senior vice president of the Irvine Co., taking note of the time that will pass before the election and the amount of money in Vasquez’s war chest.

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The withdrawal of Vasquez from the race totally recasts the coming supervisorial primary in March. Before Wednesday only Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Orange) had announced he would oppose the incumbent, but Wednesday afternoon names flew off people’s tongues.

Fuentes refused to be drawn into a discussion of the contest, saying he “always resented vultures who circle before the body is cold.”

“It is a good time to watch for a little bit and give serious thought,” he said.

While Vasquez insisted he would serve until the term expires in December, 1996, several suggested that he might opt out earlier, should the right private sector or public sector position open up.

In that case, Gov. Pete Wilson would appoint someone to fill out the unexpired term. It is the same route Vasquez himself took when he was appointed to the open seat in 1987 by Gov. George Deukmejian.

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