Chances of Police Bond Measure Passing Seen as Slim : Taxes: Supporters say a citywide campaign is critical, but are uncertain who will lead it. Two-thirds vote is needed to fund new and expanded stations.

A $171-million bond measure that would add police stations and expand others may have widespread backing at City Hall, but community leaders and political pundits say chances are slim that voters will give the measure the necessary two-thirds vote to pass.

Although advocates of the measure agree that the key to getting widespread support will be a coordinated citywide campaign to promote the proposal, so far it is uncertain who will champion the cause.

The Los Angeles City Council agreed last week to put the measure on the June 6 ballot in hopes of easing crowded conditions in police stations citywide. The bond measure, spearheaded by Councilman Richard Alarcon, would pay for new stations in the San Fernando Valley and the Mid-Wilshire area and three new police parking structures. It would also expand two crowded and aging stations and rebuild two other stations in addition to funding several other improvements and expansions.

If approved, the measure would raise property taxes for the average household by $9.40 per year for 25 to 30 years.

But no one is taking bets on the measure’s success.

“I’m not guaranteeing that it will pass,” Police Commissioner Gary Greenbaum said. “If we don’t make a good case for this, it will lose.”

There is good reason for such skepticism. Recent history indicates that voters are hesitant about giving City Hall more tax dollars, even to help fight crime.

Since 1981, three bond measures to raise money to hire additional officers and two measures to upgrade the police communications system have failed to get the 66% majority needed for adoption.

It was not until 1989 that voters approved a $176-million bond measure to add and expand police facilities. But after that measure was adopted, city and police officials revealed that they had vastly underestimated the construction costs and had to dramatically reduce the number of projects funded by the measure. The measure was to fund 32 projects, but the list was cut to 10. Among those projects eliminated were new stations in the Valley and Mid-Wilshire areas.

Voters in 1992 agreed to increase property taxes to pay for a $235-million bond measure to refurbish the 911 emergency communications system, a proposal that had been defeated twice before. So far, the city has spent only $14.8 million on the upgrades, which are scheduled to be completed by 2000.

In fact, two city reports released in January concluded that voter-approved public works programs funded by bond measures continue to lag, snarled in cumbersome bureaucracy. Among the projects cited are the 911 system upgrade and the police facilities expansion measure approved in 1989.

Given the history of bond measures, community leaders say the latest one has an uncertain future unless city or police leaders launch an extensive campaign to promote it.

“I think, unfortunately, it’s going to be difficult to get it passed, because voters don’t want to pay more taxes, and they feel they got burned in the past,” said Jerry Curry, president of the United Chambers of the San Fernando Valley.

Alarcon has vowed to take a lead role in organizing a campaign to promote the measure, but he said he expects other city and police leaders to help sell the proposal to voters as well.

“In a citywide campaign you’ll need a lot of leaders,” he said, adding that it is too soon to consider a campaign strategy for the measure.

Other city leaders said they plan to support the proposal but that they look to Alarcon and others to lead the charge.

Mayor Richard Riordan intends to champion a charter amendment on the April ballot to reform the way the city purchases supplies and equipment, and he won’t be able to put his full attention on the bond measure until after the April election, said Noelia Rodriguez, Riordan’s spokeswoman.

She added that it was the council that created the bond measure and that the council should therefore take a lead role in a campaign. “The ball is in their court to come as a group to the mayor,” she said.

Police Chief Willie L. Williams said he plans to work with the council to “campaign very vigorously” for the bond measure. He added that to win support, city and police officials will have to demonstrate to voters that the expansion projects are needed.

“We have to show the public that if they approve the bond, we will use these funds as they are needed,” Williams said.

Although Alarcon and other supporters of the measure concede that voters will be reluctant to support it, they believe that the city’s new leadership--including Riordan, Williams and four new council members--may give voters a new confidence in City Hall, which they hope will translate into support for the proposal.

But Paul Clarke, a Northridge-based political consultant, said he doubts whether the new faces in City Hall have changed voters’ opinions about increasing their taxes.

“I don’t know if the citizens are in any greater hurry to spend money today than they were two or three years ago,” he said.

Clarke added that the measure is unlikely to get the necessary two-thirds support unless someone raises funds--perhaps as much as $100,000--to launch a promotional campaign.