Study Cites Little Airline Interest in Base : Point Mugu: Report says joint military-civilian use may not initially lure any carriers other than commuter lines.

There is little or no interest by airlines in moving to a proposed commercial airport at the Point Mugu Navy base, an internal consultant’s study says.

The draft study, compiled by an Ohio firm for the Southern California Assn. of Governments, has been sent back for further work after it concluded that the proposed shared military and civilian use of the Navy airfield may not initially attract any airlines other than commuter lines--two of which already operate out of Oxnard Airport.

“Some of the conclusions were patently absurd,” said Michael Armstrong, senior aviation analyst for SCAG. “For instance, to say there’s low probability for commuters is far-fetched--there’s already two commuter airlines operating in Ventura County.”

But the results are valid, according to Mark A. Perryman, a senior consultant at Landrum & Brown, the Ohio firm that conducted the study.

“If they have any problems with the study, I wish they would communicate them to me,” said Perryman, the author of the study. “We’re happy with the report. It may not contain quite the glow that SCAG had wanted, but we think it’s an honest report and we think the proposal is still feasible.”

In the report, which was delivered to SCAG officials in September but whose contents were not made available until Thursday, Perryman said he believed SCAG’s passenger estimates--a total of 1 million to 2 million passengers by 2010--were too high. He said a more realistic figure was closer to 500,000.

Perryman said meetings with officials of the Airline Transport Assn., who forecast only mild interest on the part of the air carriers toward setting up new operations at Point Mugu, supported his study’s conclusions.

The study also assumed that the two carriers now at Oxnard Airport--American Eagle and United Express--would not move, since county officials were not eager to remove commuter service from that facility, Perryman said.

While spokesmen for United Express and American Eagle could not be reached for comment Thursday, Neil Bennett of the airline industry group said the continuing economic malaise affecting the airline industry may make it difficult to lure even a short-haul carrier to a new airport.

“It’s really, really early in the process,” said Bennett, the industry group’s Western region director. “If anything, I think you’ll see one, maybe two commuters--but not much else for the foreseeable future.”

A survey by The Times of regional airlines conducted in March, 1993, revealed little or no interest in moving to Point Mugu.

Earlier that same month, the Navy--citing declining numbers of military flight operations--broke with a decades-long stance and sought out county leaders’ interest in creating joint military-civilian operations at the 11,000-foot-long airfield.

Thursday, Camarillo Councilwoman Charlotte Craven said the draft report bolstered her opinion that the airport idea is flawed.

“As a councilwoman and a longtime member of the investigative committee, it galls me that they (SCAG) would not show us the contents of this report,” said Craven, who is a member of the Point Mugu Airfield Investigative Committee, the group of county officials studying the joint-use proposal. “I’m really annoyed by this.”

Craven, along with four other members of the Camarillo City Council, voted last year to oppose the Point Mugu plan based on concerns about noise, safety and air pollution.

Ventura County Supervisor John K. Flynn, however, played down the findings of the internal report, calling it an early draft whose conclusions may not be valid.

Flynn, one of the more vocal supporters of the airport plan, said he is eager to establish a joint-powers authority with several Ventura County cities to govern the proposed facility.

“This is why I am interested in getting the JPA going,” Flynn said. “I think it will be one of the roles of the authority to ferret out the truth and to examine this proposal closely.”

The supervisor said he wants to put the JPA issue on the Jan. 31 agenda of the Board of Supervisors. Should his colleagues agree to the joint-powers authority, it would be immediately activated and the investigative committee would be retired.

Wednesday, SCAG released the second of a two-phase feasibility study on the joint-use plan. The draft report indicated that if developed, the airport could generate thousands of jobs and would do no further damage to the ecologically sensitive Mugu Lagoon or surrounding wetlands.

The document also indicated that a high-tech satellite-based navigation system could be installed to prevent commercial airliners from flying over Camarillo. The so-called Global Position System would allow airlines to land and take off from over the ocean.

The next Point Mugu investigative committee meeting is scheduled for 10 a.m. Wednesday at Camarillo City Hall.