CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS : LEGISLATURE : GOP Inroads in Assembly Likely to Come Up Short

Democrats, led by Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, on Tuesday were fighting off the Republicans’ spirited effort to seize control of the Legislature’s lower house for the first time since 1970.

Pre-election predictions from both parties suggested that Democrats would retain at least a narrow margin in the Assembly, and early returns Tuesday in the most competitive districts appeared to confirm that Brown’s forces would see their cushion trimmed although Democrats would remain in control.

In the state Senate, where Democrats were expected to maintain a strong majority, liberal Tom Hayden of Santa Monica appeared headed for victory in his fight to move to the upper house after 10 years in the Assembly.

In other closely watched races, Republican state Sen. Robert Beverly of Long Beach was leading after facing a stiff challenge from an underfinanced opponent. In San Diego, state Sen. Lucy Killea, an independent whom Republicans had targeted as their top incumbent for removal from the state Senate, jumped off to an early lead over GOP challenger Jim Ellis, a retired state senator who was attempting to regain his old seat.

A powerful senator not on the ballot Tuesday--Democratic floor leader Barry Keene of Ukiah--announced on election night that he will quit the Senate early next month. Keene, a legislator since 1972 and now the Senate’s second-ranking member, said that, as an “insider,” he could no longer contribute to the “repair of a dysfunctional state government.”

Two Democratic incumbents in the Assembly--Bob Epple of Cerritos and Dede Alpert of Coronado, were behind in the early returns, which reflected the traditionally strong GOP vote in the absentee balloting. Democratic Assemblyman Terry B. Friedman of Encino held a narrow lead over former Santa Monica Mayor Christine Reed.

Assembly Republican leader Bill Jones of Fresno conceded Tuesday night that the GOP would fall short of winning a majority in the Assembly. He predicted that the Democrats’ majority would fall from the current 47-33 to no better than 43-37. He said it was possible the Democrats might be left with a slim 41-39 edge.

No matter what the partisan breakdown turns out to be, there will be more newcomers in the next legislative session than in any year since 1966, when 34 freshmen joined the lower house. Going into Tuesday’s balloting, 25 members of the Assembly had either announced retirement, run for another office or lost their reelection battles in the June primaries.

Tuesday’s results also seemed certain to assure that the Assembly, when it convenes Dec. 7, will have more minorities and women than ever.

Six first-time Latino candidates, all Democrats, appeared headed for victory. Running ahead were Louis Caldera in the 46th District, Diane Martinez in the 49th, Martha Escutia in the 50th, Hilda Solis in the 57th, Grace Napolitano in the 58th and Joe Baca in the 62nd. They would join returning Democratic Assemblyman Richard Polanco of the 45th District, also leading Tuesday night, to form the largest bloc of Latinos--seven--in the Assembly’s history.

With Juanita McDonald of Carson facing no Republican opponent in the 55th District, the Assembly’s African-American caucus will remain at seven, even as Assemblywoman Teresa Hughes (D-Los Angeles) is leaving the Assembly in a bid to move up to the state Senate.

Oxnard Mayor Nao Takasugi, a Republican, was running ahead of his Democratic opponent in the 37th District in a bid to become the first Asian-American to serve in the Legislature in more than a decade.

The current Assembly has 17 women, but six did not run for reelection. Still, a record number of women were on the ballot Tuesday, and election analysts predicted that 20 or more would be elected.

The Assembly elections were seen in many quarters as a referendum on the leadership of Gov. Pete Wilson, who exerted more energy on behalf of his party’s candidates than any governor in recent history.

Wilson had hoped to seize control of the Assembly for the GOP by taking advantage of new districts, drawn by the state Supreme Court, that were more favorable to Republicans than the Democrat-drawn boundaries in use for the past 10 years.

He raised money from doctors, insurers, manufacturers and others, and he directed it to races that political aides judged to be within the Republicans’ reach. Independent committees of gun owners and religious conservatives also poured money into the campaigns.

Although the governor’s job rating was lower than that of any chief executive in the history of the Field Poll, Wilson campaigned throughout the state for Republican candidates, telling voters that Democratic control of the Legislature had stymied his efforts to bolster the business climate by overhauling the costly workers’ compensation system.

Starting with a base of 19 incumbents and 12 candidates for open seats thought to be safely in GOP hands, the Republicans sought to defend their two most vulnerable incumbents and targeted about half a dozen Democratic lawmakers. The Republicans also went after six open seats that both major parties considered winnable.

Democrats responded to the challenge with an aggressive voter registration effort, tipping toward the majority party several districts the Republicans had hoped to capture. The Democratic campaigns were funded by big contributions from labor unions, trial lawyers and other interests.

“I think we will come back with a minimum of 41 Democratic seats,” Speaker Brown said in an interview in the campaign’s closing days. “Beyond that it’s pure speculation.”

Republicans, as they have in the past, tried in district after district to link Democratic candidates to Brown. Republican candidates in more than one district were described as “Willie Brown’s worst nightmare.” Several Democratic candidates were described as the Speaker’s “best friend.”

On the defensive, several Democrats sought to distance themselves from their party’s Assembly leader by telling voters they would be an independent voice in Sacramento.

As Wilson and Brown brawled for control of the Assembly, Democrats and Republicans in the Senate fought not so much to advance their numbers as to protect what they have. Democrats hold 24 seats, Republicans 13 and independents two, and there is one vacancy.

Killea, a former Democrat who quit the party after her election to the Senate in 1989, waged an aggressive reelection campaign as an independent against Ellis. Ellis was a recipient of Republican Party funds; Killea received political action committee funds and financial help from some Senate Democrats.

In a redrawn Long Beach-area district, Republican Sen. Beverly, a fixture in the Legislature since 1967 who had coasted to victories for years, found himself in a stiff race with political newcomer Brian Finander, a Democrat.