Iran Threat Driving Arabs to Restore Egyptian Ties

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates —  Feeling increasingly threatened by Iran, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf have decided, according to diplomats and other officials, to re-establish diplomatic relations with Egypt, the No. 1 military power in the Arab world.

“It would have happened sooner or later anyway,” but the Iran-Iraq War has acted as a catalyst, one Middle Eastern diplomat said. “Their motive is fear of Iran and the need to find an Arab counterweight to the Iranians.”

The move to formally re-admit Egypt to the Arab fold is expected to come as early as next week, when Arab leaders gather in Amman, Jordan, for an emergency summit of the Arab League.

Egypt, long considered the dominant member of this organization, was suspended from the league in 1979 for signing a peace treaty with Israel.

“It has already been decided to raise the question of Egypt’s re-admittance into the Arab League at the summit,” a senior Arab diplomat said.

Exactly how the issue will be raised and whether or not it will actually be put to a vote is not clear, this official said, as did others.

Syria, an ally of non-Arab Iran, and other Arab hard-liners are expected to oppose any formal attempt to vote Egypt back into the league. The summit was called to discuss the Iran-Iraq War, but Syria has already succeeded in blurring the focus by making its participation conditional on the discussion of other issues, including the Arab-Israeli dispute.

While some diplomats think that Syria’s consent to Egypt’s re-admission will be purchased with petrodollars from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, others believe that the issue is likely to remain a contentious one, especially in view of the anti-Iranian context in which it is being presented.

Within the Arab League, “those who want relations with Egypt are a very big group, and they want it very badly,” one diplomat said. “Still, one should never underestimate Syria’s ability to throw a spanner in the works.”

Most Arab countries support Iraq in the long-running conflict. The Saudis and Kuwaitis, who feel especially menaced by Iran, hope to forge a common Arab stand against Iran at the summit meeting and may use the Egypt issue to pressure Syria into going along with a stronger anti-Iran resolution than they would otherwise accept, some analysts said. In that event, they said, the Egypt issue might not be raised formally at all.

Many States May Act

However, even if this happens, a number of Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, are expected to re-establish formal ties with Egypt in the near future, according to diplomats in the gulf and in Cairo.

“Egypt may not formally be re-admitted to the league this time, but the summit will leave members free to re-establish bilateral relations if they so choose,” a Jordanian source said.

He said he expects this to happen “very quickly,” within the first few weeks after the summit meeting.

Most Arab countries already have close ties with Egypt in all but name, but the importance of restoring formal relations now lies in the signal it would send to Iran that if push comes to shove in the gulf, Egypt “will be there to help its Arab allies,” a Western diplomat said.

‘A Symbolic Step’

“It’s very important as a symbolic step,” he said. “It sends a strong message to Iran . . . to think twice about antagonizing these countries.”

Egypt is already the Arab world’s largest supplier of arms to Iraq. Giant C-130 transports laden with munitions leave Cairo airport for Baghdad almost daily.

There have been recent reports that Egypt had sent 70 air force pilots to Kuwait to bolster that gulf sheikdom’s defenses after several Iranian missile attacks against Kuwaiti sites and vessels in Kuwaiti waters. The reports have been strongly denied by Egyptian officials and discounted by Western and Arab diplomats. However, Egypt is understood to have a number of military advisers in the gulf, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last month proclaimed Egypt’s readiness to “stand by Kuwait . . . with all our capabilities in the defense of its territory.”

Opposition From Saudis

Among the Arab gulf states, the main opposition to restoring Cairo to its place in the Arab League has come in the past from Saudi Arabia, which has always contested Egypt’s claim to the leadership of the Arab world.

However, the rich but traditionally timid Saudis have been forced to reconsider their position in the face of the widening gulf war, last summer’s anti-American, anti-Soviet riots by Iranian pilgrims in Mecca--in which many Iranians were killed--and the more recent Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait. Faced with Iranian attempts to subvert their regime and that of Kuwait as well, the Saudis “have come to the realization that Egypt is the only Arab country apart from Iraq that is capable of acting as a counterweight to Iran,” a Western diplomat said.

Finding an Arab counterweight to Iran is important to the gulf states, because without it, their only alternative is to slide into a deeper dependence on the United States, a prospect they find disturbing for several reasons.

Pride and Politics

One reason has to do with the fact that the riots in Mecca and other manifestations of the gulf war have so polarized the political climate in the region that no Arab leader feels comfortable in associating himself too closely with the United States. Sensitive matters of pride and politics come together on this issue in a particularly explosive mix.

Although Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain are extending considerably more support to the U.S. military presence in the gulf than they publicly admit, there is still “a tremendous reluctance on their part to take the step of saying that they are under the protection of the United States,” a Western diplomat said.

But with Egypt, he said, it is a different matter, because if direct military assistance were ever required, there would also be “a tremendous symbolic difference between having U.S. forces on site and having other Arabs.”

Another reason has to do with lingering doubts about the reliability of the U.S. commitment in the gulf region.

Sensitive to U.S. Debate

The U.S. Navy has struck Iranian targets in retaliation for attacks on American-protected vessels in the gulf, and Washington’s credibility has been enhanced considerably by its demonstrated willingness to confront Iran.

However, Arab officials remain sensitive to the congressional debate over the U.S. role in the region. The fear most often expressed here is that if the Americans begin to suffer heavy casualties, they will, in the words of a senior Saudi official, “pull the Lebanon trick”--a reference to the U.S. withdrawal from Beirut after an attack on the U.S. Marine barracks there in 1983 in which 241 servicemen were killed.

Yet another reason for the gulf states’ reluctance to rely more closely on the United States stems from the difficulties they have had in obtaining U.S. weapons, due largely to the opposition of the powerful Israeli lobby in Washington.

Recently, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have all approached the United States with requests to buy Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. These requests are expected to be refused, and this has left a bitter aftertaste here in view of the the fact that the United States has supplied these same missiles to Afghan rebels--and that some of those arms subsequently fell into Iranian hands.

The tiny sheikdom of Bahrain gives more support to U.S. forces in the region, both publicly and privately, than any other country in the region. Yet its emir, Sheik Isa ibn Salman al Khalifa, alluded to the dangers of placing too much trust in the United States when he publicly called for Egypt’s re-integration into the Arab fold earlier this week.

Praising Egypt’s “pan-Arab stand toward Iraq and the dangers facing the Arab world,” Sheik Isa suggested that in the last resort, the Arabs can count only on themselves.

“The foreigner will not be with us one day, but will be against us,” he said.