Steaming open the envelopes

“Hooray for Hollywood!” Come on, everybody. “Hooray for Hollywood, that screwy, ballyhooey Hollywood, where any office boy or young mechanic, can be a panic ?” Wait, wait, stop. You’re killing me.

Forget the singing. Anyway, this is it ? Hollywood’s night of nights, the 78th Annual Academy Awards, and you know what that means, of course.

It’s time for the annual P. Buffa “I Just Don’t Understand How He Does That” Oscar Picks.

One follows the other, like day follows night, summer follows spring, and emergency surgery follows a Dick Cheney hunting trip. As you well know, my success rate at predicting Oscar winners is beyond uncanny, beyond comprehension, beyond hyperbole ? 96.4% to be exact.

How can I say that? It’s easy. I’m lying. May we have the envelopes, please.

The nominees for best supporting actor are: George Clooney, “Syriana”; Matt Dillon, “Crash”; Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”; William Hurt, “A History of Violence.”

The winner will be: Matt Dillon, “Crash.” Should be: Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man.”

Paul Giamatti is moving beyond the limits of everything we know about great acting, but the Hollywood crowd just doesn’t like him. Not even being nominated last year for his performance in “Sideways” was the greatest slap in the face in the history of slaps in the face. Hollywood loves George Clooney, even if he isn’t moving to Newport Beach, and he got raves for his performance in “Syriana.” But Matt Dillon in “Crash” is a great example of my “One Time” theory of acting. God lets every mediocre actor perform light years beyond his or her ability once and only once in their lives. “Crash” was Matt Dillon’s “One Time” performance.

The nominees for best supporting actress are: Amy Adams, “Junebug”; Catherine Keener, “Capote”; Frances McDormand, “North Country”; Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”; Michelle Williams; “Brokeback Mountain.”

The winner will be: Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener.” Should be: Amy Adams, “Junebug.”

Amy Adams blows the roof off in “Junebug,” but she is still considered, gasp, a television actress. This set includes my favorite actress in the cosmos, Frances McDormand, and my second favorite, Catherine Keener, either of whom could beat the rest of these girls like a bongo, but neither will win. The critics couldn’t get enough of Rachel Weisz in “The Constant Gardener.” I wasn’t that impressed, but she did have the almost unfair advantage of working opposite Ralph Fiennes, who is so good that standing within 30 feet of him will usually get you nominated for something.

The nominees for best actor are: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”; Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”; Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk The Line”; David Strathairn, “Good Night, And Good Luck.”

The winner will be: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote.” Should be: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote.”

Talk about scary good. Hoffman’s depiction of Truman Capote is downright eerie. I kept squinting and cocking my head from one side to another to make sure that really was Hoffman up there playing one of the greatest writers and strangest people who ever lived. What a terrible stroke of bad luck for Joaquin Phoenix that Hoffman’s Capote had to hit the screen the same year as his Johnny Cash. In any other year, Phoenix would have won it going away.

The nominees for best actress are: Dame Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”; Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”; Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”; Charlize Theron, “North Country”; Reese Witherspoon, “Walk The Line.”

The winner will be: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk The Line.” Should be: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk The Line.”

Wow. Double wow. Picture this: You’re the lead in a major film playing a country music legend; you’ve never sung a note in your life, neither has Joaquin Phoenix; nothing in the film is going to be dubbed. It’s all going to be sung ? by you. Now that’ll make those palms sweat. By the time she is done, which will be no time soon, Reese Witherspoon will be one of the most respected actresses in history.

There is a dark horse in this race in Felicity Huffman, who is a powerhouse in “Transamerica,” playing a man, who is becoming a woman, who is midway in the transsexual process.

The nominees for best director are: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”; Bennett Miller, “Capote”; Paul Haggis, “Crash”; George Clooney, “Good Night, And Good Luck”; Steven Spielberg, “Munich.”

The critics are spellbound, enchanted, nuts about “Brokeback Mountain.” Lee is a prohibitive favorite on this one, pard. This is a turbocharged year for directors though, with a crew of 900-pound gorilla directors and George Clooney ecstatic to be running with the big dogs in his first major effort.

This much I can tell you. If “Brokeback Mountain” doesn’t win, the critics are really going to be Ang Lee. All right, settle down. It wasn’t that bad.

The nominees for best picture of 2005 are: “Brokeback Mountain”; “Capote”; “Crash”; “Good Night, And Good Luck”; and “Munich.”

For a while it looked like a slam dunk for the gay-vaqueros flick. But you know what they say, “It ain’t over until the chubby girl chirps.”

“Brokeback Mountain” was the runaway leader, out front by four lengths at the turn. But then, slowly, surely, “Crash” started sliding along the rail, edging closer and closer then bursting into the lead with a best ensemble cast win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. In the last week, it’s been a classic back-and-forth, give-and-take, thrust-and-parry between “Crash” and “Brokeback Mountain,” but the winner, by a nostril, will be ? drumroll please ? “Brokeback Mountain.”

What is that old cowboy expression? Oh yeah, “I wish I knew how to quit you!”

You’re the best. Don’t ever change. Let’s do lunch. Have your people call my people.

I gotta go.