Chaos reigns on our local political scene

I’m toying with the idea of the next new Daily Pilot feature being called the Next Ax to Fall.

I haven’t quite worked out all the details. Maybe the Pilot will provide a list each week and get readers to pick which ax they expect to fall first. Or maybe we’ll just have readers send in their picks and run the one who’s right.

If we’d started it last week, John Heffernan’s resigning from the Newport Beach City Council would have been the winner.

A week ago, it appeared that the November Newport Beach ballot was going to be unimaginably chaotic: five council seats up, including one open with Councilman Tod Ridgeway hitting his term limit, and possibly two initiatives and a vote on the general plan.

Heffernan’s resignation ups the chaos to what -- from the people I’ve talked to say -- is an unprecedented number of seats that will be on the ballot at once (six, if you lost count).

And that’s just the scene in the fall. Over the next month or so there will be the jockeying to fill Heffernan’s seat, which will happen by appointment -- the fourth in four years. In his resignation letter, Heffernan suggested his 2004 election opponent (and Daily Pilot columnist) Dolores Otting.

I wouldn’t count on her getting much support beyond Councilman Dick Nichols. And when the council doesn’t appoint her, expect some serious squawking from council watchdogs and opponents. That squawking, I think, will be the unofficial start to the election season.

I’d love to hear from readers who want to argue that a past election in the city was bigger than this one is setting up to be. Send me an e-mail.

The chaos covered so far is just in Newport.

Costa Mesa has an open seat that, if you want to stretch a simile a bit, could be likened to Judge Samuel Alito’s replacing Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Just as O’Connor was the deciding vote on a number of sensitive Supreme Court decisions, Gary Monahan’s seat (if not always Monahan, himself) seems destined to be the one that turns the city in the direction of either Mayor Allan Mansoor and Councilman Eric Bever or Councilwomen Linda Dixon and Katrina Foley. (That’s assuming Mansoor wins reelection.)

With such stakes, we can bet on high-pressure and high-cost campaigns in Costa Mesa.

Now, as much fun as all this political craziness promises to hold, having so many people running in both cities has its more substantive drawbacks. Among them:

* Local versions of “pork” projects that council members (and possibly even candidates) will be touting. Keep your eye on the unexpected items pushed to council agendas. And then think about whether city staff time was spent wisely.

* Grandstanding and more grandstanding. With so much on the line in both cities, there is no reason to expect much beyond the most superficial, emotional political arguments. Anyone excited about council meetings lasting until 3 a.m.?

* Overflowing mailboxes. Again, with so much on the line, there likely will be new (and old) interest groups flooding voters with literature. (Or does that fit under grandstanding?)

CHRISTMAS IN JANUARY

A small digression, not terribly political, to end up this week. Friday night is the annual Christmas Boat Parade Awards dinner and auction, this year being held at the Balboa Bay Club.

For no good reason I can recount, this is one of my favorite events of the year. That someone always manages to give new meaning to the phrase “black tie optional” is certainly part of the draw. Maybe it’s that you get an extra holiday boost to pull yourself out of January doldrums.

It had looked like I was going to be out of town for it this year, but plans changed and I’m now trying to remember where my tuxedo jacket is.

A special note for Newport-Mesa Unified School District Trustee Serene Stokes: See you in the silent auction line.

* S.J. CAHN is the editor. He may be reached at (714) 966-4607 or by e-mail at [email protected].

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