Race to the House draws to a close

In special election to replace Chris Cox in Congress, many already have cast absentee ballots.Voters in the 48th Congressional District today will choose the person who will fill the seat former Rep. Chris Cox held for nearly 17 years -- if they haven’t already picked one by absentee ballot.

Five candidates are running for the House seat: Republican state Sen. John Campbell, Libertarian Bruce Cohen, American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist, Green Party candidate Béa Tiritilli and Democrat Steve Young.

Another Republican candidate, Steven Wesley Blake, will not appear on the ballot but has qualified as a write-in candidate.

As of Monday, 14.28% of the district’s 405,655 registered voters had returned absentee ballots -- almost exactly the same percentage as voted absentee in the Oct. 4 primary.

Turnout is expected to be even lower today than the 22.8% of voters who cast ballots in the primary, so the winner may have been decided before the polls opened this morning. UC Irvine political scientist Louis DeSipio said a turnout of about 17% to 18% is likely.

“In a race in which votes don’t really matter all that much, we’ll get a lower turnout actually going to the polls,” he said.

The district includes Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Irvine and all or part of nine other coastal and southern Orange County cities.

With the Republican Campbell favored to win, the biggest issues might have been the war in Iraq and the economy. But with Minuteman Project founder Gilchrist in the race, it instead has drawn national attention as a proving ground to gauge the importance of illegal immigration as an issue in the 2006 elections.

Candidates also called in as much outside help as they could, with Colorado Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo campaigning for Gilchrist, Vice President Dick Cheney appearing at a Campbell fundraiser, and Young making a final push Monday with automated calls to voters recorded by Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean.

If Campbell wins today, on Wednesday afternoon he’ll fly to Washington, D.C., where he’ll be sworn in and cast his first votes as a congressman by the end of the day.

And if Campbell wins, the election season won’t be over. His resignation from the 35th District state Senate seat would trigger another special election, this time to replace him. As with the Congressional election, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would have 14 days to call a general election, which probably would be in early April. A primary would likely be held in February.

Two Republicans -- Dana Point City Councilwoman Diane Harkey and Huntington Beach Assemblyman Tom Harman -- already have begun campaigning for Campbell’s seat.

With the usual round of congressional elections and murmurs about more statewide ballot issues next fall, “we’re just in a continuous election [campaign] until November,” DeSipio said.

* Find your polling place through the Orange County Registrar of Voters by calling (714) 567-7600 or visiting www.oc.ca.gov/election.

* ALICIA ROBINSON covers government and politics. She may be reached at (714) 966-4626 or by e-mail at [email protected].