Voters: It’s in the mail

In the state’s 48th Congressional District, the political process is

no longer controlled by those who show up. Mailing in is now where

it’s at.

State Sen. John Campbell nearly swept Tuesday’s special election

to become the district’s congressman on the strength of absentee

votes, and his general election opponents will have to target those

voters to have a shot at beating him Dec. 6.

Campbell will face the top vote-getters from four other parties in

the general election to fill former Rep. Chris Cox’s seat:

Libertarian Bruce Cohen, American Independent Party candidate Jim

Gilchrist, Green party candidate Bea Tiritilli and Democrat Steve

Young.

New unofficial results from the Orange County Registrar of Voters

Wednesday, including more absentee ballots that were turned in at the

polls, changed slightly from Tuesday. Campbell’s percentage of the

votes dropped from 46.8% to 45.7%; Republican Marilyn Brewer gained a

point, going from 16.1% to 17.1%; Gilchrist’s vote total rose from

13.3% to 14.6%; and Young dropped from 9.2% of the votes to 8.7%.

Those new totals also showed more than 63% of the 89,991 votes

cast Tuesday were absentee ballots.

That’s significantly higher than the typical percentage of

absentee voters, which ranged from about 31% to nearly 39% in the

last three major elections. It’s difficult to say how much of

Tuesday’s absentee total is attributable to the election being

scheduled on two religious holidays -- the Jewish celebration of Rosh

Hashana and the beginning of Ramadan for Muslims.

Beyond the absentee numbers, Tuesday’s election yielded some other

interesting information.

“I think the most surprising result is the level of Gilchrist’s

support,” UC Irvine political scientist Louis DeSipio said.

The central issue of Gilchrist’s campaign was stopping illegal

immigration, and the 14.6% of votes he earned shows that’s the main

issue for a number of voters too, DeSipio said.

Since 2001 President Bush periodically has suggested a program to

provide temporary legal status for “guest workers” in the country,

but Gilchrist’s traction in such a Republican district could mean the

president’s program would alienate some in the GOP.

“I think the folks in the national party and the folks in the

White House should be attentive to that,” DeSipio said. “Republicans

that support that will be taking a risk in 2006.”

Attacking Campbell’s record on illegal immigration will remain

part of Gilchrist’s strategy to win the general election, Gilchrist’s

campaign manager Howie Morgan said.

Young will be banking on Gilchrist taking enough votes away from

Campbell to make him vulnerable to a Democrat.

“They’re going after the same base.... He [Gilchrist] is going to

be the Ross Perot of this election.”

Campbell said Wednesday it was disappointing not to win the

Congressional seat outright, but it was a difficult task. He hasn’t

figured out yet what it’s going to take and how much it will cost to

win in Dec. 6.

“I don’t know yet, but we’re not going to take it lightly at all,”

he said.

* ALICIA ROBINSON covers government and politics. She may be

reached at (714) 966-4626 or at [email protected].