Gas may fuel exodus from Empire

Pedal Power business first: Thanks to the generosity of Barbara Lyon

of Newport Beach, I was able to restore a fabulous, girl’s mountain

bike. It looks great and rides like new. If you know of a girl, 8 to

14 years old, who needs a bike but cannot afford one, please send me

an e-mail at [email protected]. The bike is free and so is

delivery anywhere in Orange County.

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The higher gas prices will continue to affect us all in many ways,

even if you don’t drive or don’t really care how much you pay per

gallon.

There was some speculation in the newspaper that the smaller

crowds at the local beaches this weekend were due to people not

wanting to use the gas to drive here. And as much as residents may

like the reduction in traffic, some businesses count on crowds to

flourish.

At a nearby bike store, a salesperson told me that higher gas

prices had helped sales. I’m guessing that would be true at the

motorcycle and scooter stores too.

Now consider the plight of a colleague. When “Bob” and his family

moved to Southern California about three years ago, they chose to

live in Temecula for the same reason millions of others have: more

house for the money.

Now, Bob drives into Santa Ana every day from Temecula, going over

the mountains via the Ortega Highway (74), which he claims is faster

than driving around them on the Riverside Freeway (91), even using

the toll roads.

One of the main reasons that the Inland Empire can point to for

its growth was the availability of cheap gasoline. A few years ago,

it didn’t take a financial wizard to do the math and see that if you

didn’t mind spending four hours a day in your car in heavy traffic

that, yes, you could buy a bigger house for a lot less dough.

But the difference in the smaller mortgage was often consumed by

commuting expenses, for which the travelers failed to account. There

is a lot more to the equation, such as the value of one’s time and

the assorted auto expenses other than gas, but for these people, it

was a fair trade.

But now gasoline is over twice what it was when they moved into

Murrieta, Temecula or some of the other communities in the Inland

Empire.

Now, the math is a lot different. Now, Bob is paying more than

$100 a week in gasoline for the privilege of sitting in traffic; for

the privilege of owning a bigger house on more land. Bigger, yes,

better no.

Thanks to higher gas prices, the folks in the Inland Empire may

soon be coming home to Orange County, looking for the homes they

should have considered years ago.

Their mistake, or more precisely, the mistake of anyone who moved

to the Inland Empire and commutes to Orange County, was the

assumption that everything in their lives would remain the same

forever. More to the point, they did not consider that their commute

costs would triple or quadruple over a period of a few years.

The bottom line is that these commuters have just taken a huge cut

in pay.

No one could have predicted such a steep rise in gas prices in so

little time, but we can all predict change. That’s easy.

Were I a homeowner in the Inland Empire right now, I’d now be

taking a serious look at moving, before mortgage interest rates rise

and make the decision more difficult. With the equity I may have, I

can move closer to work and use my higher gas expenditures on a new

mortgage.

Were I a real estate agent in Newport Beach or Costa Mesa, instead

of planting signs and waiting for buyers, I’d be prospecting the

Inland Empire for homeowners who have lived there for five years or

more. I’d be sending them a letter telling them that if they are

commuting into Orange County, I can help them find a home closer to

work, one that will have benefits such as less stress, more family

time, closer proximity to more activities and more.

I’d offer to do a free, no-obligation analysis of their budget to

determine whether the move makes sense, building in continued rises

in gas prices.

Peter Buffa may or may not be right about gas hitting $5 a gallon

before we get to say “Merry Christmas,” but his larger point is right

on the money: Gas prices are going to continue to rise.

All of this is to the point that housing prices go in cycles. And

while the prices may have leveled off or are even starting to tick

down, there will be renewed interest in these homes from smart

commuters who have now had it with the Inland Empire life. There are

thousands of them out there. That demand may drive prices up.

I haven’t seen or heard this scenario being predicted by any of

the experts. That is either because they’ve thought about it and

dismissed it, or they’re too close to their subject and can’t see

what my simple mind sees.

I know, I know. Don’t quit my day job.

* STEVE SMITH is a Costa Mesa resident and a freelance writer.

Readers may leave a message for him on the Daily Pilot hotline at

(714) 966-4664 or send story ideas to [email protected].

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