Maybe not today, but DeVore might regret this

S.J. CAHN

The quotation I can’t get out of mind when I think about El Morro

these days comes from the movie “Casablanca.”

“I’m shocked -- shocked to find that gambling is going on in

here!” Capt. Renault tells Bogart’s Rick just before being handed his

winnings.

That pretty well sums up the reports that Assemblyman Chuck DeVore

-- who’s proposed two bills that would allow residents of El Morro to

stay in their homes -- received campaign donations from those very

residents and from a man neatly tied to the company that manages the

mobile homes’ leases.

A politician got money from a group of people and then apparently

did them a favor? I’m shocked -- shocked to find that politics is

going on in here!

All that aside, what I’m trying to decipher is whether the ensuing

outcry would have been expected, and if there’s any chance it could

play out as a factor in the 2006 election.

First things first.

My guess is this little tempest in a beachfront teapot wasn’t

DeVore’s expectation. Given that all the professional Sacramento

watchers see his twin bills as dead on arrival, I think just

proposing them would have filled any obligation he might have had to

his El Morro backers. He could have returned to El Morro, waging his

fists at the Democrats, who wouldn’t let his bill come to a vote, and

have fulfilled any obligation to his supporters.

(And yes, I know that DeVore has said that as a fiscal

conservative, getting money for the land instead of creating more

costs for the state parks department fits into his core beliefs. But

don’t you have to believe that he wouldn’t have thought of these

bills without some sort of input from those there who support him?

After all, aren’t there better ways for him to try to save money that

would have a chance of success?)

The story didn’t remain quiet, however. A pro-DeVore,

letter-writing campaign began almost immediately -- with letters

addressed to the Pilot -- and opponents of his proposals were vocal,

as well. And it certainly wasn’t that DeVore was trying to keep it

silent. He announced the plans and other developments to the media.

Perhaps the miscalculation was on how much media this story would

get or, perhaps more likely, that the opposition would be as loud as

it was. If folks hadn’t responded, there wouldn’t have been any

reason for the media to look into DeVore’s campaign filings to see

whether there was a overtly obvious tie to El Morro. Without that,

perhaps the story would have just remained a version of the

now-familiar folks yelling back and forth at each other, arguing

about leaving the tenants in their homes versus building a campground

at the park. And DeVore would have come out without any worries.

The second point, now. In the newsroom, there’s debate about

whether this story has hurt DeVore’s reputation with the voters.

Should he be worried, in other words. Certainly, I don’t remember

people writing to the Pilot to say they hoped John Campbell would

have only one term in the Assembly.

But there are two reasons to doubt this incident will come back to

haunt DeVore. The first is that we’re just months into his two-year

term. A year from now, the El Morro story will be a distant memory.

The second is that, really, as much response as the Pilot’s gotten

on this issue -- most of it supporting DeVore -- the future of El

Morro doesn’t strike me as an issue that’s truly going to drive

people to the polls, especially to get rid of an incumbent. It just

doesn’t rise to that level of drama.

Still, there might be a few reasons to look for a challenger. The

first is that there is a lot of time left until the election, which

would give an opponent time to put together a team and raise money to

challenge DeVore in the Republican primary. The second is that DeVore

survived a tough fight in that primary a year ago. Perhaps one of his

vanquished opponents would use this as an opportunity to fight

another day.

We’ll know the answer another day.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (714)

966-4607 or by e-mail at [email protected].