The feverish rush to election night
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S.J. CAHN
Three days of absurdly high fevers will change a man.
That’s how I spent the bulk of last week, pushing our old
thermometer to see if it could, in fact, register 104.
I don’t recommend it, although tearing your psyche apart via a
really fine sick does wonders for the soul.
As my thoughts started coming back together, they occasionally
alighted on our local political scene (I’m telling you, I was really
sick).
So, all that aside, here are some post-feverish thoughts on
November’s elections, in no particular order of importance.
Costa Mesa tide
After two elections in which so-called Westside Improvers have
gained seats on the council, first via Chris Steel in 2000 and then
Allan Mansoor in 2002, I think the increase will stop this year.
It’s not that I think an Improver won’t win. But I don’t see Steel
and another Improver-backed candidate -- in this case, Planning
Commissioner Eric Bever -- both victorious.
A bit of ink has been spent recently on Steel losing his core of
supporters, so it’s easy at this point to declare his chances slim.
And probably, it’s pretty right on. Steel had the element of
surprise, in terms of a well-organized machine in 2000 that altered
his decades-long curious campaign into a winning one. Lacking that
organization this time around, he awaits a tough battle -- especially
in a city that hasn’t been easy on incumbents the last two times
around.
I also think the other candidates -- Councilman Mike Scheafer,
Planning Commission Chairman Bruce Garlich, Planning Commissioner
Katrina Foley and Parks Commissioner Mirna Burciaga, who are all
firmly in the race -- and possible candidates, former Mayor Linda
Dixon and resident Samuel Clark, will not be shy about pushing Steel
(and Bever, likely) on central Improver issues: the number of
charities; the direction and type of development downtown and on the
Westside; the status of the city’s Job Center. Those issues have not
been the subject of much discussion during the elections in 2002 and
2000.
Voters will be the winner if they are this time around, because a
campaign full of substantive debate about Costa Mesa’s future is
needed.
Newport Beach consistency
I’m not foreseeing much change post-election.
I’ve seen, for instance, a list of Councilman Steve Bromberg’s
advisors, and it includes a strong cross-section of his district (and
the town, more generally, even). He and his backing will be difficult
to beat.
That’s a marked turn from election night 2000, when Bromberg was
in a tight race with slow-growth, Greenlight-backed candidate Pat
Beek. He defeated her 13,972 to 13,060.
I wonder if Bromberg even will be challenged.
The fortunes of another 2000 candidate have grown even brighter
than Bromberg’s in the years since that election: Councilman Steve
Rosansky.
The councilman might not want to remember it, but he placed third
in the race for the West Newport seat, won then by Gary Proctor --
the man Rosansky eventually replaced on the council.
Today, Rosansky is getting high marks for his six months on the
council from all corners of Newport’s political spectrum -- which
bodes well for him in the fall. There isn’t even another obvious
candidate to challenge him at this point.
Finally, there’s the one wildcard: Councilman John Heffernan. He’s
still playing a bit coy on whether he’ll run again. If he does,
here’s my “isn’t that strange” prediction: Heffernan, who ran and won
when backed by Greenlight in 2000 (the group’s first council win), is
the most likely to get a challenge from a Greenlight-backed
candidate.
I failed to get ahold of a Greenlight spokesman to see if there’s
even a hint of truth to that thought, so at this point, it’s just
wild speculation.
But wait and see.
Out of their control
While sick, I did -- toward the end, when the fever and
accompanying hallucinations retreated -- hear a good bit of news
radio. And something struck me, strongly.
Now, here’s where the hate mail should start.
President Bush is going to lose in November.
Why?
Well, he obviously has the best group of political handlers and
managers in existence (the Democratic National Committee’s Terry
McAuliffe’s uber-optimism and over-caffeinated enthusiasm
notwithstanding). The combination of Karl Rove and the
underappreciated Karen Hughes (back now from a break in Texas) is an
unbeatable one. They managed close votes across the country and
Bush’s malapropisms and beat back a strong Democratic economic record
in 2002. They are unafraid to do what’s necessary to win. They put
circa-1992 James Carville and George Stephanopoulos to shame.
But in 2000, we were living in quiet, manageable times. We aren’t
today. Iraq, the war on terrorism, Afghanistan and who knows what
next are not going to be controllable. And that strips the Bush Team
of its greatest political (and, as always, I’m talking solely
political) advantage.
(By the way, the mention of hallucinations, while true, is also a
gift to letter-writers who want to disagree with me. “S.J. Cahn must
still be hallucinating ... “ The rest is up to you. We have a Forum
page awaiting your thoughts.)
* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (949)
574-4233 or by e-mail at [email protected].
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