High turnout may have little effect in Newport

Mathis Winkler

NEWPORT BEACH -- While the presidential race is expected to draw an

unusually high voter turnout, election observers say that more ballots

cast will have little effect on the outcome of the city’s campaigns.

“The closeness [of the presidential race] might excite people to go to

the polls,” said Mark Petracca, chairman of the political science

department at UC Irvine. “But that’s not what’s happening.”

While California Secretary of State Bill Jones has predicted the

state’s highest voter turnout in two decades, with more than 75% of

California’s registered voters going to the polls, Petracca said

nationwide numbers probably would only surpass the 1996 elections by a

few points. Turnout then was less than 50%, Petracca said.

Newport Beach’s two growth-control measures on today’s ballot --

Measures S and T -- each have a good chance of passing, Petracca said.

“I’d be willing that more people are probably supportive of slowing

down growth,” he said.

Measure S proposes to put before a citywide vote any development that

allows an increase of more than 100 peak-hour car trips or dwelling units

or 40,000 square feet over the general plan allowance.

Measure T would add parts of the city’s traffic phasing ordinance to

the City Charter and nullify Measure S, should voters approve both

measures.

Initiatives that propose to shift decision-making power from elected

officials to the people have generally succeeded in the past, Petracca

said.

“All we have to do is look at what happened with Measure F,” he said

of the anti-El Toro airport initiative passed last March. “No one

expected that to pass. It’s very hard to get two-thirds of the people to

pass something.

“Ordinarily, California voters have preferred citizen empowerment over

empowerment of legislators,” Petracca said. “But I’m not so convinced

that that’s the issue that’s come across.”

He added that passage of Measure S should alert council members.

“Even if [S] passes and doesn’t get as many votes as T, it says, ‘We

don’t trust the City Council,’ ” Petracca said. “In a different world,

[council members] might consider falling on their swords. They might

consider stepping down from office.”

Others in the city said the outcome would likely depend on the senior

vote.

“We’re the biggest voting block in the city,” said H. Ross Miller, 81,

who sits on the board of The Friends of Oasis and has lived in Newport

Beach for 30 years.

With most of the city’s 20,000 seniors registered to vote, Miller said

the group represents a large chunk of Newport Beach’s 50,377 registered

voters.

While Miller has encountered some seniors who oppose Measure S, a

majority favored the initiative, he said.

“The No. 1 concern seems to be traffic,” he said, adding that more

development and a distrust in elected officials also ranked high on the

list.

Apart from the two measures, voters will also determine who assumes

three seats on the City Council.

In District 2, computer sales consultant Dennis Lahey, 58, businessman

and lawyer Gary L. Proctor, 55 as well as real estate broker Steven

Rosansky, 40, are competing for the seat vacated by Councilwoman Jan

Debay.

In District 5, retired retail manager Patricia M. Beek, 52, mediator

Steve Bromberg, 56, and retired engineer Robert Schoonmaker, 68, all hope

to replace Mayor John E. Noyes behind the dais.

In District 7, incumbent councilman and real estate broker Tom

Thomson, 55, is trying to keep his seat against challengers John

Heffernan, 50, a businessman and attorney, as well as Robert L. Wynn, 69,

a retired city manager.